On October 2nd, in exactly three months, a South American country will elect a new president for the third time in the calendar year: after the news of Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia (the first president of the left in the history of the country), it's up to the Brazil, the largest economy on the continent. And in this case, more than a novelty, it could be a great return: 12 years after the last time (he was president from 2002 to 2010) and after the well-known legal proceedings that seemed to have compromised his political career, the favorite for victory is the revived Lula da Silva, historic leader of the Workers' Party.
Lula introduces herself to challenge with outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro strong than a solid lead in polls, probably due more to dissatisfaction with the current head of government than to convinced consensus. It could be the classic case of "voting against", a bit like what happened in France with voters who did not give credit to Marine Le Pen, preferring Macron: better to discard extremism, in times of war.
War and inflation: what effects on Brazil?
The war in Brazil is not felt directly, but the effects are all there, starting with inflationary spiral which even in the largest country in Latin America is making itself felt clearly. Admittedly, Brazil isn't paying it like neighboring Argentina, which surpassed 60% year-on-year in May, a 30-year record, with a forecast of 72% for the calendar year according to the Central Bank of Buenos Aires. In Brasilia the latest figure speaks of a price index up 12% compared to a year ago, but according to the governor of the central bank, Roberto Campos Neto, the worst would be over, so much so that the final balance of 2022 it is expected below +5% compared to 2021.
However, according to many indicators, Brazil is economically going through the worst moment in the 21st century: after the great growth of the first decade, the country returns to have difficult to feed the entire population. According to EBIA (Escala Brasileira de Insegurança Alimentar) only four out of ten Brazilian families have full access to food and over 33 million individuals suffer from hunger (15% of the population and almost double compared to 2020). In all, 125 million Brazilians live with some degree of food insecurity, while only one in 10 Brazilians report having more than enough food.
Brazil elections 2022: what the polls say
The latest survey published at the end of June by Datafolha, a statistical institute headed by Folha de São Paulo, one of the most authoritative newspapers in the country (although in recent months there have been some blunders, such as the fake news on the death of Queen Elizabeth ), speak clearly: Lula has 47% of voting intentions in the first round, largely ahead of 28% of which Bolsonaro is credited and just under 50%+1 who would proclaim him president without resorting to a runoff (the margin of error is two points).
Il second roundhowever, still according to the polls, it could turn out to be a formality: in that case Lula's advantage would exceed 20 points, 57 34% against%, with 8% of blank or void ballots and 1% undecided.
Bolsonaro: from the Petrobras case to the weight of social media
Bolsonaro, for its part, navigates on sight between gaffes and slips, the latest of which is the increasingly controversial attempt to privatize the giant Petrobras, continually attacked by the president for the increase in fuel prices, which caused volatility in the stock on the Stock Exchange and resignation of three CEOs in the last three years, the last of which, Jose Mauro Coelho, last June 20th. Coelho resigned two days after the new price increases for petrol and diesel came into effect, but in fact he had already been dismissed in May by Bolsonaro, who had indicated the name of his successor, Caio Mário Paes de Andrade. All while the opposition recalls that just a few days ago Petrobras paid the first installment to shareholders a record dividend, worth 48,5 billion reais, and which will also benefit the public coffers - as long as the state remains the majority shareholder.
Bolsonaro however, he consoles himself by confirming himself absolute king of social networks. In Brazil, the Quaest institute periodically updates the digital popularity index, thanks to an algorithm that analyzes Twitter (where the current president has over 8 million followers, more than double Lula's), Facebook (14 million against not even 5) , Instagram, YouTube, Wikipedia and Google. Bolsonaro commands with 33 points, against 29 for Lula, who therefore does not break through despite his undeniable popularity. And this is another theme of the campaign, regarding the "vote against": in part, even the outgoing president could benefit from this paradigm, since the rival's charisma has faded a bit over time.
Lula: from the Lava Jato investigation to abortion
Squid, in fact, presents himself to the presidential appointment at the age of 76, probably no longer at full strength. This is probably the last round for him and there are not a few Brazilians who, in any case, preferring him to Bolsonaro, do not forgive him judicial troubles which has never been fully understood. Indeed, the former president he has not been formally acquitted of corruption and money laundering charges: sentenced in the second instance to 12 years under the maxinvestigation lava Jato, has already served 580 days in prison, but has returned free taking advantage of a procedural error which led to thecancellation of the process from him right away. The image of him, therefore, is not 100% rehabilitated, because in theory that process should be repeated.
And then there's the matter abortion, a topic that has become very topical since the shock decision of the US Supreme Court to no longer guarantee this right. According to analysts, Lula's new wife, the sociologist Rosângela da Silva, would in fact have advised him to go overboard, declaring yes against the practice of abortion (which is prohibited in Brazil) but in favor of recognizing the right. An ambiguous and electorally counterproductive position: according to a survey by Genial/Quaest, after those statements, 50% of those interviewed said that the chances of voting for him decrease, and only 7% instead answered that they felt more inclined to opt for him. The sensation is of a Lula halfway between the barricademan of yesteryear and a new, more moderate, if not downright market friendly, so much so that the endorsement of the international community goes to him. Finance included. And maybe that's exactly what will make the difference.
I'm sorry, but this is a totally partisan article, which attempts once again to discredit Bolsonaro and re-credit Lula, already convicted on appeal for, yes, the famous Petrobras scandal, the Lava Jato investigation, which condemned not only Lula, dozens of other members of the PT, Lula's party. The Brazilians don't think like you, they don't want to go backwards, but above all they don't believe in these bogus polls. But is it possible that the left has not found anyone else than to nominate a former convict for corruption, money laundering, etc.? Bolsonaro will be unpleasant, a friend of the military, declared a fascist and genocidal, but he is not corrupt. Lula cannot say the same thing. And he can't even walk freely on the street without being insulted by ordinary people.
I'm sorry, I'm ready to support any debate on these issues. Enough of these slanders, this does you no credit as a journalist. Maybe he'll accredit it to some party.
If you think the Brazilians are against Lula, why don't we bet 100.000 euros on who will win the election? Or do you shit yourself?
Do Brazilians agree to re-elect the person who set up the biggest scandal of corruption, money laundering and theft of public money in history? But did the Lava Jato investigation teach us nothing?
It is truly true that every people deserves the government it has.
Dear Mr. Zonca,
I have lived in Brazil for two and a half years and I am not looking for any party membership. I would like to point out to you that the polls were not fake, you actually won Lula, albeit by a little and I am the first to admit that I thought Bolsonaro would win, due to the climate in the country. But I wonder: does it seem small to you to be declared fascist and genocidal? Isn't it at least as serious as being corrupt, also convicted through an investigation that later turned out to be irregular, and conducted by a magistrate who then became a minister with Bolsonaro? Haven't you wondered about this? Cordially.