After Italy, elections in Brazil. On Sunday 2 October, the largest economy in South America calls its 156 million entitled citizens (out of a total of over 220 million) to choose between the outgoing president, Jair Bolsonaro, and the revived Squid, former president in the XNUMXs and according to polls Favourite for the big comeback, after nearly 600 days in prison and at the ripe old age of 76. According to forecasts, the leader of the Workers' Party (PT) could even win in the first round, with an advantage of about 15 percentage points, to almost 50%, even if it is more probable that it will close the accounts only in the runoff two weeks later. The fate of Bolsonaro however, it seems marked: Lula managed to create the Brazilian-style "wide field", bringing together 9 parties - including his own - in what is the largest electoral coalition ever seen in the history of the country. The former trade unionist is so aware of his role as frontrunner from having deserted last Sunday's television face-to-face, to avoid running into any slip-ups.
Brazil 2022 elections: the economy in the central electoral campaign
The die therefore seems cast, even if the last mile of campaign saw the field take the field in an overbearing way economy theme. In fact, two important data hover over the vote: one that could be in favor of Bolsonaro (already absolute ruler on social networks and whose popularity is despite everything recovering credit in the last period), another that could cause uncertainty, influencing international geopolitical scenarios . The climate of economic confidence it was, according to Datafolha which is certainly not an institution close to the current president, at the historic highs of the era Bolsonaro: 3 out of 10 Brazilians believe that the situation has improved in recent months, a low figure but rising from 15%, while the percentage of those who instead see a worsening of the economy has dropped from almost 70% to 50%. At the moment the government forecasts for GDP speak of +2,7% this year but with a slowdown in 2023, when, for example, according to the OECD, expected growth will be 0,8% and no more than 1,2% as previously estimated.
China's shadow over Brazil
It is in this framework that it falls upon Brazil the shadow of China. While on this side of the Atlantic we unravel between the Atlantic alliance and the war in Ukraine, Beijing wastes no time and in the meantime tries to get its hands on the world. It is known that the Asian giant, as well as extending its tentacles where possible in Europe and Africa (where it exploits mineral resources and finances colossal infrastructures), has had a passion for Latin America for some years. Brazil in 2021 became the first recipient country of Chinese investments worldwide: after the decline in 2020, the increase was 208%, with the total value in the calendar year almost 6 billion dollars, the highest figure since 2017, when it was 8,8 billion but with the same number of projects. And once again we are dealing with huge, strategic projects, focused above all in the fields of energy, telecommunications, but also industry and infrastructure. Investments that have aroused perplexity in public opinion, due to the usual fear of "selling out" some of the country's assets.
The discontent was picked up in this case by both political camps. The Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes he claims that the Chinese advance (which he literally calls "chinese") is not pleasing the business world at all, and Lula has positioned himself in the same wake, making his own the refrain that "China is occupying Brazil".
In reality it would be occupying the whole of South America, given that if it is true that the Brazilian data is the most striking - almost 14% of the entire global Chinese investments arrive there -, also in the other South American countries i loans grew by 2021% in 30 (not counting Brazil), compared to an increase of only 3,6% in the rest of the world. While from Europe the sensation is that the world axis is shifting towards the East, the focus of China it is therefore more and more the South of the world. There were 2021 projects financed in 28 in Brazil, some of which are particularly significant. In terms of value, the lion's share goes to the oil sector (85% of the total), thanks in particular to the agreement between the Chinese CNODC and CNOOC, and Petrobras, for a stake in the Buzios area.
Brazil speaks more and more Chinese
Also relevant, again in the energy field, is the privatization of electricity transmission company of Rio Grande do Sul: the tender was won by CPFL (State Grid) for a value of around half a billion euros. And that's not all: the telecommunications giant Tencent, present in Brazil since 2018, is funding fintech startups left and right: Nubank, QuintoAndar, Cora and so on. Still in the fintech field, Ant Financial (Alibaba group) has bought 5% of Dotz, an online cryptocurrency platform.
An investment in the automotive industry is also important: Great Wall Motors acquired the Mercedes Benz car factory in Iracemopolis (Sao Paulo). Brazil speaks more and more Chinese, and perhaps after all it suits him: trade with Beijing is very intense, with Brasilia exporting enormous quantities of soybeans, in exchange for other raw materials essential for its industry. And to which it could have easier access in the future, allowing China to plant another flag of risk in a country where, from 2010 to today, it has already invested the beauty of 70 billions of dollars.
