The Yellen effect continues. Indeed, yesterday evening the president of the Chicago Fed Charles Evans explained that the current levels of inflation, which are too low, represent a "major obstacle" to raising rates. Not even a very positive data tomorrow on the US labor market could push the central bank to move higher in April. Hence the upward thrust of the stock markets, favored by the slowdown in the dollar, to a seven-month low against the euro traded at 1,1321 (+4% since the beginning of January) and against the yen, 112,37 (+6,6% year to date).
AT WALL STREET BOOM FOR CRUISES AND YOGA
The US indices close up: S&P 500 +0,4%, Dow Jones and Nasdaq +0,5%. The leap forward of Carnival (+6,6%) and of its rival Royal Caribbean (+3,6%) is significant, at least on a psychological level: the effects of terrorism have not been felt on the accounts of the big cruise companies. The success of Lululemon is singular (and symptomatic): the Canadian company, leader in yoga clothing, rose by 9,7% after the accounts.
ASIA CLEARS LOSSES, WANDA BOOM (+18%)
Asian stock markets also performed well, thus closing the first quarter in positive territory, eliminating the losses caused by the crash of the Chinese stock exchanges at the beginning of the year. Morgan Stanley's Asia Pacific index marks a rise of 1,2% since January, slightly above the Tokyo parity. The markets' attention is directed to the macro data to be released tomorrow in China, starting with the index of business purchases.
Worth noting is the leap of Wanda (+18%), the real estate heart of the empire of Wang Jianlin, the richest man in China. The title, listed for only 15 months, will leave the Hong Kong list as part of Wang's strategy to focus on growth in entertainment: the tycoon has just strengthened his leadership in US cinemas by purchasing the Carmike Cinemas chain.
OIL LOSES PUSH. EUROPE WEAK OPENING
The fall of the US currency is one of the causes of the rise in the price of crude oil. But oil trimmed gains in the evening. Brent crude is trading at $39 this morning. Worth noting are the increase in US stocks and the tweet from Ecuador's Energy Minister in which he anticipates his intention to present a request to cut hydrocarbon production at the next meeting of producing countries.
The fear of a rise in US interest rates having faded, the European stock markets experienced a day of widespread increases. But futures this morning signal a weak open for London, Paris and Frankfurt. The FtseMib index of Piazza Affari gained 1,1%. The other European markets, less conditioned by the banking sector, did better: London rose by 1,5%, Paris +1,7%, Frankfurt +1,6%.
Investors have ignored potentially negative news: Standard & Poor's has cut its growth estimates for the euro area for 2016: from +1,8% in November to +1,5%. The index on the expectations of entrepreneurs and consumers developed by the European Commission was disappointing, falling to its lowest level in the last 12 months: in March it reached 103 from 103,8 in February.
TREASURE, RETURNS EVERYTHING
On the day of the 5-year and 1,21-year BTP auction, the yield on the reference ten-year Italian bond fell by two basis points to 0,34%, on the lows of the last year. The rate of the new five-year BTP fell to a new all-time low of 0,44% (against the previous 80%). Technical factors also contribute to the decline in government bond yields. Only in May, Bloomberg points out, did the purchases by the ECB will extend to corporate bonds.In April, therefore, the XNUMX billion incoming from the central bank will all end up in government bonds, causing a scarcity effect.
FIAT CHRYSLER AT THE TOP OF THE EUROPEAN AUTOMOTIVE
Fiat Chrysler, up 5,8% yesterday, was the best stock in the European Stoxx Automotive Index (+2,8%). With yesterday's leap, FCA's loss since the beginning of the year is reduced to -15%, after a 34% rise in 2015. Barclays has raised its opinion on the stock (target private 10 euros).
CNH Industrial advances by 2,5%: based on the estimates of a consulting firm, in 2017 the market for heavy construction machinery should close with growth after five years of decline. The other industrial stocks were positive: Prysmian +2,5%, Finmeccanica +1%, StM +0,2%. Luxury is also on the rise: Moncler +3,1%, Yoox +5,1%.
DIASORIN +8,9% AFTER SHOPPING IN THE USA
Big hit in the USA by DiaSorin (+8,9% to 50,0 euros), which announced the acquisition of the assets in molecular diagnostics and immunodiagnostics from the US Quest for 300 million dollars. All of Focus's tangible and intangible assets used for the development, production and distribution of the related Elisa molecular diagnostics and immunodiagnostics products pass to the Piedmontese group, including, among other things, intellectual property rights, contracts and the customer portfolio.
WEAK TELECOM, TODAY THE CATTANEO EFFECT
The end of the session fell yesterday for Telecom Italia (-0,3%). Prices influenced by two pieces of news: the board of directors has appointed Flavio Cattaneo as new managing director and the EU has decided to launch an in-depth investigation into the merger between Wind and 3Italia, to ensure that there are no disadvantages for consumers. The reduction in the number of operators from four to three, with a relative decrease in competition, would be good news for Telecom Italia and Vodafone.
Also noteworthy is the strong gain of Mediaset (+5,7%). The FCP-Assoradio observatory has published the data on advertising sales in the radio segment which showed a 5,9% growth in the month of February. Mediobanca Securities appreciated the news and confirmed the outperform recommendation. The same judgment for L'Espresso (+5,3%).
SUPER MANAGED. FINECO ENTERS THE FTSE MIB
Asset management companies are running, above all Anima (+2,6%) and Banca Mediolanum (+2,6%). Finecobank gains 2,4% to 7,41 euros, the highest since mid-January. From April XNUMX, the bank led by Alessandro Foti will become part of the FtseMib index which brings together the main blue chips of Piazza Affari.
The rebound of crude oil has favored the recovery of Eni (+2,8%). Out of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, optimism prevails: 15 recommend buying the six-legged dog stock and 14 to keep it in portfolio, the remainder to sell it. The average target price is 14,87 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has fallen by 2%. Tenaris (+4%) and Saipem (+7,8%) also performed well.
UTILITIES RECORD, OILS GROW
Still in evidence Enel (+0,7%): the company has announced a billion dollar investment in Mexico. The utilities favored by the scenario of low interest rates reap new records. Snam Rete Gas closes up 2,8%, at 5,53 euro, a new historical record. The gain since the beginning of the year expands to +13%, one of the best performances of the FtseMib (-14%), surpassed only by that of Moncler (+15,5%). Bernstein confirmed the Outperform recommendation with a target price of 5,80 euros. The dividend on 2015 results will be equal to 0,25 euro per share, in line with that distributed in 2014. The yield on the listing is around 4,7%.
Terna shines with a gain of 1,7% which allows the quotation to update the previous all-time high, reaching 5,12 euros for the first time. The performance since the beginning of the year expands to +7% and is one of the best among the Milanese blue chips. The yield on the listing is around 4%.
TARGET SHOOTING ON UNICREDIT FOR POP VICENZA
The banks did not participate in the general celebration: the sector index dropped by 1,67%. Under fire Unicredit (-3,4%), after an article in the Financial Times which speaks of talks between the Bank and the Italian government to obtain support for the 2 billion euro capital increase of Banca Popolare di Vicenza. A note from Unicredit, in the evening, specified that "in relation to the listing of Banca Popolare di Vicenza, Unicredit is assessing whether the conditions exist to carry out the operation within the foreseen times", but "denies having contacted the Italian government".
The institution's guarantee to the Vicenza bank expires on 30 April. Unicredit could try to postpone the operation if market conditions do not improve. In the meantime, HSBC has reduced the target price to 5 euros from 6,10 euros. The judgment remains Buy. Yesterday Fitch reduced its outlook on the group to negative from stable confirming the issuer rating 'BBB+'. The rating, we read, reflects the weakness of asset quality, especially relating to the significant amount of doubtful exposures in Italy, and the pressures on capital.
Intesa closes down by 0,6%. RBC analysts have reduced the target price of the stock to 3,50 euros from the previous 3,70 euros. However, the new target price promises a potential gain of 43% on paper. RBC confirmed the Buy rating. Carlo Messina, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo who, through Banca Imi, leads the guarantee consortium for the increase of Veneto Banca (one billion, to be carried out by June), said that the institution will respect the contract.
Down Banco Popolare (-3,1%) and Pop. Milan (-1,3%). HSBC cut the target price of the Veneto group from 8,42 to 6,93 euros and that of the BPM from 0,97 to 0,89 euros. A note from Fidentis notes that the forecasts on synergies between the two banks risk turning out to be "too optimistic". Ubi Banca (-3,9%) and Mps (-2,42%) also fell.
