Among the many interesting aspects of the CNEL 2013-2014 Labor Market Report, presented at Villa Lubin last September 30 by the President of the Special Information Commission, Tiziano Treu (about to be appointed Extraordinary Commissioner of INPS), they deserve a particular mention is the data concerning the effects of the most recent legislation on the composition of the labor market.
These data confirm trends that have already emerged in other surveys, starting from the monitoring carried out - for various reasons - following the Fornero reform (Law No. 92/2012) and subsequent measures. In a nutshell, by comparing both the trend and the cyclical changes (raw and seasonally adjusted data) of the first two quarters of 2014 with the corresponding ones of 2012 (that is, before the entry into force of Law No. 92) it is possible to observe that: collaborations are declining; intermittent work collapses; shows a propensity for a slight increase, at the end of the period after months of markedly negative signs, in permanent contracts; the apprenticeship seems to be taking off with difficulty; temporary jobs are growing.
In essence, it is confirmed that the provisions of the Fornero law have discouraged recourse to atypical relationships with tendentially precarious characteristics, which have now become at a high risk of legal disputes and the transformation of penalties into permanent contracts. Already in the third quarter of 2012 (the first after the entry into force – on 18 July – of law no. 92) collaborations – which before the Fornero law grew by 4% per quarter – dropped by 21,7% (of 18,6% as seasonally adjusted data), intermittent work decreased by 27,5% (even by 43,4% as seasonally adjusted data).
The apprenticeship seemed to suffer, at first, from the more binding requirements introduced by the law n. 92, undergoing decreasing performances up to the +16,1% turnaround in the second quarter of 2014 (+13,3% of the seasonally adjusted figure), as a result - let's imagine - of the simplification measures contained in decree no. 34/2014 (Poletti). From the statistics deriving from the mandatory communications, compared with the data of the Cnel Report, one could have expected a more sustained dynamic of the start-ups with fixed-term contracts. The trend is nonetheless characterized by a growth dynamic which, also in this case, accelerates after the entry into force of the Poletti decree (+ 6,4% in the first and + 3,9% in the second quarter, even if the data are influenced by seasonal elements). The permanent contract follows a bumpy path throughout the period with significant negative changes (the greatest drop, of 14,7%, is found in the third quarter of 2013 despite the entry into force of the Giovannini package).
It should be noted, however, a trend reversal (+1,4% which rises to +3,1% as a cyclical figure) in the second quarter of 2014. However, it is known that the forward contract has become even more the instrument prevalence of access to employment. At least in terms of flow, especially for younger workers; for which, however, the consideration also applies in terms of stock. In 2013, in fact, the percentage of fixed-term contracts on total employment in Italy remained at 13,2% as it was in 2007, before the crisis. On the other hand, it grew by more than ten points (from 42,3% in 2007 to 52,5% in 2013) for young people (15-24 years): roughly double the OECD average. Even the transition to permanent employment has become less frequent and takes longer.
In 2008 on 2007, the exit from fixed-term employment was 28,9% towards permanent work, 3,9% towards self-employment, 5,8% towards unemployment and 10,7% towards inactivity, while 50,7 remained confined to fixed-term work; in 2013 on 2012 the latter share rose to 57,5%, while the transition to stability decreased to 18,4%, to self-employment to 3,1%, that to unemployment and inactivity increased respectively to 8,7% and 12,3%.
In conclusion, what can we say about the Youth Guarantee programme, one of the few initiatives aimed at promoting the employability of young people? Cnel speaks of a difficult test that continues slowly. Out of 201 members, there have been, up to now, 55 summons compared to just over 13 job opportunities.
