Appointment at 10 at the Quirinale. Seldom has the financial news been so intimately involved in the political one, to the point that it will be up to the markets to give the first judgment on the merits of Mario Draghi's choice as pilot to get Italy out of the shallows of the crisis after the failure of the attempt by the Speaker of the Chamber, Roberto Fico. The first indications on the spread confirm the operators' favor for SuperMario: the spread at 8 opens just above 100 points.
It is not difficult to note that the decision of President Sergio Mattarella avoided the risk of a possible collapse of the spread, the first consequence of a probable failure of the Italian-style Recovery Plan. Now we're off again, with the feeling that this time it's really forbidden not only to make mistakes, but also to be late.
The Italian crisis, fortunately for us, falls on markets in a state of grace, as emerges from several signals. Oil's rally picks up speed, confirming the recovery in global activity. Brent rose for the fourth day in a row to 57,7 dollars a barrel, a twelve-month high.
It also accelerates the automotive. Yesterday Volkswagen's number one, Herbert Diess, argued that the worst is over. Punctual response in Europe and the USA. Above all, the Asian producers shine.
The Chinese manufacturers' association estimates a 4% increase in registrations in 2021, to 26,3 million. Korea's Hyndai Motor gains 5% and its subsidiary Kia 14%. The sales data released tonight are very good, but in addition there are the confirmations of the Korean press on a maxi-supply agreement between Kia and Apple, apparently for 3,6 billion dollars.
Almost all Asian stock markets rose this morning: it is the third installment of the February rally. The data on the pandemic would seem to guide it: in the United States, new infections on a weekly basis have fallen below the one million mark, the minimum in the last three weeks. In China, only 25 new cases yesterday, the lowest point in the last month.
ONLY ALIBABA GOES OFF, THE LITTLE WITH BEIJING IS NOT CLOSED
Euphoric Asia. Tokyo's Nikkei is up 0,8%. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists by 0,5%, the Kospi of Seoul by 0,9%. The race of the Indian price list continues: +1%.
Only Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell, also penalized by the drop after Alibaba's results: -4%. Revenue rose 37% to 221,1 billion yuan (about $34,2 billion), compared with an analyst forecast of 215,3 billion yuan. Net profit rose 52% to 79 billion yuan (12,17 billion yuan). The stock falls because in the course of the presentation the managing director Daniel Zhang admitted that the changes in Chinese legislation on the Internet and Fintech activities are a problem to be solved. In addition, the company explained that it is unable at this time to calculate the negative impacts caused by the stall of the Ant Group IPO, which was halted by the Beijing authorities after Jack Ma's statements against the credit sector.
ALPHABET TAKES FLIGHT TOO
The state of e-commerce in the USA is different. Jeff Bezos yesterday announced his intention to leave the leadership of Amazon in the hands of Andy Jassi, his closest collaborator. The founder wrote to employees that he wants to have more time to focus on three things that are close to his heart: the fight against climate change, space exploration and the The Washington Post. Bezos takes his leave with spectacular numbers: for the first time in its history Amazon exceeds one hundred billion in turnover (+ 44%, to 125,56 billion). Profits more than doubled to $7,2 billion, or earnings per share of more than $14.
Strong increase in the post stock market Alphabet (+6%). The parent company of Google has released a quarterly record. Turnover at 56,9 billion dollars, up 23 percent. Profits jumped 42% to highs of $15,23 billion, or earnings per share of $22,30.
The benchmark index of the US stock market closed yesterday evening with a rise of 1,5%. Wall Street futures rise: that of the S&P 500 by 0,5%. Futures on European stock exchanges are also positive.
EUROZONE, GDP DROP BUT STOCK MARKS RISE
The containment measures that slow down the pandemic, together with the progress in the research and administration of vaccines, have given impetus to the rise in stock markets, already projected in the post Covid 19 world. The contraction of the Eurozone's GDP in the fourth quarter (- 0,7% after -6,8% in 2019) did not curb optimism because the data was still better than expected. The sudden breakdown of the negotiations for the solution of the political crisis turned the picture upside down late in the evening. President Sergio Mattarella's call to the need to create a "high-profile" government (i.e. Mario Draghi) as an alternative to early elections to be held in a simply dramatic setting has probably overturned the mood of the market which this morning will first of all look at the trend of the spread, which fell yesterday in the mistaken belief that the crisis was winding down.
BUSINESS PLACE +1,11%, ABOVE 22 THOUSAND QUOTA
Piazza Affari gained 1,11% rising above the 22 level to 22.066 points. The raw Italian GDP recorded a decrease of 2020% in 8,8. In the rest of Europe: Frankfurt +1,6%; Paris +1,9%; Madrid +1,95%; London +0,77%.
BP COLLAPSES, AIRBUS FLY
Heavy fall of BP (-3,7%) after profit in the last quarter of 2020 fell to 115 million dollars due to weak energy demand and poor trading results.
Airbus flies to Paris (+6,59%) following the promotion of Morgan Stanley. Luxury is also highlighted: Lvmh +3,39%.
SPREAD TO 114 BEFORE FICO'S FLOP
Yields on the bond market rose slightly despite the fact that at closing time the crisis seemed to be on its way to a solution. The spread on the Bund on the 114-year section closed at 0,65, unchanged. The ten-year rate stood at around 0,64%, compared to 0,62% at the start and after closing at XNUMX% the previous session.
Syndicated issues continued in the euro area on the long and extra-long segment. Belgium issued a 50-year 5 billion, Finland a 3-year 53 billion, with orders exceeding 23 and 30 billion respectively. Meanwhile, Portugal has given a mandate for a XNUMX-year bond that could be issued today.
FERRARI OFF TRACK: RECORD ACCOUNTS, BUT DON'T LIKE THE GUIDANCE
“We will take all the time necessary to choose the best ceo possible”. John Elkann, in the role of interim president of Ferrari thus disappoints analysts who expected some more signals on the future of the Prancing Horse or even the designation of Marco Bizzarri, CEO of Kering. The result was that, despite record results and orders that already cover the whole of 2021, a wave of sales rained down on the stock in the afternoon, thanks to a disappointing guidance for the current year, which relegated it to the bottom of the list. index with a drop of 2,98%.
CNH RECORD (+5,3%), GS PROMOTES STELLANTIS
The negative performance also fell on a very positive day for the car, supported by the positive forecasts of the head of Volkswagen, Herbert Diess. Stellantis rallied 3%. The stock is backed by Goldman Sachs, which has started hedging with a buy rating and a target price of 18 euros. But in the Exor stable (+3,76%) Cnh Industrial shone above all: +5,32%, at 11,275 euros, driven by the buy of Equita, a target of 14 euros (+33%) and by the prospect of the possible sale of the Iveco subsidiary to the Chinese Fang. The stock has grown by almost 30% in the last 10 days and is now worth about double what it was six months ago.
BANKS AND OIL AHEAD
The growth in the price of oil has launched stocks linked to raw materials: Tenaris +4,14%, Saipem +3,68%, Eni +1,35%. Banks also performed well: Intesa Sanpaolo +2,69%, Banco Bpm +1,98% and Finecobank +2,1%.
UTILITIES DOWN, TISCALI DEFLATED
Atlantia's recovery continued (+2,17%), while Fincantieri raised its head again (+3,55%) but, apart from Ferrari's crash, the decline in practice only concerned Diasorin (-0,52%) and utilities, which were affected by the rumors of a possible further postponement of the liberalization of the electricity market: Italgas -0,52%, Enel -0,26%.
Outside the main basket, Tiscali loses 9,09%, after yesterday's exploit: the traders of Noantri are already in debt of oxygen. Fincantieri did well (+3,55%).
