The effects of the pandemic that is bringing the entire planet to its knees inevitably also affect the financial markets. In recent weeks we have seen the stock exchanges collapse, large companies review their objectives (and in some cases also their businesses), a safe haven asset such as gold to return to its highest values since February 2013. And above all, a raw material such as oil plummets to around 25 dollars a barrel (last price of Brent on 27 March).
In recent days, crude oil has undergone a historic overtaking, which only Covid-19 could cause: the race for necessary goods, and therefore for food raw materials, has meant that the price of wheat exceeded that of black gold. One clarification, however, must be made: the values taken into consideration are those relating to Russia, one of the world's top producers of both grain and oil. Last week, wheat prices in Putin's country (which in fact decided to limit exports) had reached 13.270 rubles per ton, even surpassing that of Ural oil, which fell to 12.850 rubles per ton.
But also the international price of wheat has risen significantly, according to what emerges from analyzing the performance of the reference stock exchange for the agricultural raw materials sector, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT): in the last week the price of futures contracts with delivery in May has further increased by 6%, reaching 587 dollars per ton (in October it was around 500), while soybeans rose by about 2% and corn increased in value by 0,7% in the same period.
The trend is so upwards that, as mentioned, Russia is considering protecting part of the harvest by limiting exports (Moscow is the world's leading wheat exporter), while Kazakhstan, another major seller, has even banned exports of the most precious raw material. However, according to Coldiretti, the increase in wheat, which is the most representative food product in Western countries, is only the tip of the iceberg: tensions are also recorded for rice with Vietnam temporarily suspending new export contracts while shares in Thailand rose to their highest level since August 2013.
Soy is also on the rise, the agricultural product among the most cultivated in the world, with the United States competing with Brazil for the global primacy in crops and China which is the world's largest consumer because it is forced to import it to use it to feed the booming livestock with meat consumption.
THEItaly for its part it is one of the best examples of what is happening for wheat: in the last month, due to the health emergency, purchases of flour have practically doubled (+99,5%) but those of white rice rose by 47,3% and those of semolina pasta by 41,9%. Among other things, even though Italy has reduced the scope of its crops over the years (in the last decade one in five wheat fields has disappeared, with the loss of almost half a million hectares of cultivated land), it remains the most widespread crop in Italy with about three hundred thousand engaged farmers.
Precisely in this phase of maximum demand, according to Coldiretti one could therefore aim for greater self-sufficiency, relaunching the sector. Italy is today first in Europe and second in the world in the production of durum wheat intended for pasta, with an estimated 1,2 million hectares sown in 2020, up by 0,5%, with a production of around 4,1 billion kilos. But imports from abroad are still strong (equal to around 30% of requirements) with as many as 793 million kilos, an increase of 260% arriving after the CETA agreement from Canada. With these prices, it can be an (additional) problem.
