The 30-year Bund returned to a timid positive yield last night. The US ten-year T bond, in the same hours, rebounded to 1,745%. Perhaps these are the signs of a trend reversal that can be explained in two ways: the first effects of the imminent intervention by the central banks, on the eve of the ECB's decisions and one week before the probable cut in US rates. No less important, the easing of international tensions on interest rates. And not only.
Donald yesterday Trump fired US National Security Advisor John Bolton, the leader of the hardline hawks against Iran, but also against Venezuela. Meanwhile, efforts are multiplying to cushion the effects of the tariff war on the tariff front and ease tensions. The editor of the semi-official Global Times, Hu Xujin, tweeted tonight that the government is preparing to introduce other measures that could mitigate the effects of the trade war. A few hours earlier, the authorities had ordered the removal of restrictions on the purchase of shares in Chinese companies by foreign entities.
In this context, the markets greet Ursula Von der Leyen at the helm of the EU and prepare to welcome Draghi's measures.
TOKYO SALE, APPLE (+1,2%) CHALLENGES NETFLIX
Hong Kong recovered (+1,3%), while the CSI 300 indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen were slightly down (-0,3%) under the pressure of sales on alcoholic beverages stocks.
The greater appetite for risk favors the rise in Tokyo: Topix +1,4%, fifth consecutive session on the rise. The Korean price list also advanced: +0,8%.
The yuan is flat against the dollar at 7,11. The yen, Asia's safe haven currency, weakened for the third consecutive day, reaching 107,7 against the dollar.
Closing in parity yesterday for the US markets: Dow Jones +0,28%, S&P 500 +0,03%, Nasdaq +0,04%.
Apple advances (+1,2%) after the presentation of the latest i Phones with a reduced price of 700 dollars. But the real news is the launch of streaming activities in competition with Netflix. Apple will launch a $4,99 subscription, similar in price to Walt Disney's services.
GOLD FALLS, OIL RECOVERS AFTER BOLTON RELEASE
Gold has entered its fourth consecutive day of decline, rebounding weakly to $1.491 an ounce this morning.
Brent oil was up 0,9% to $62,9 a barrel, from -0,3% at the close. Saipem (-1,4%), Eni (+1,24%) and Tenaris (+1,17%) advance in Piazza Affari.
This morning the euro-dollar rose slightly to 1,105.
THE ITALIAN DEFICIT TOWARDS 2,3%? THE ITALIAN PAPER SUFFERS
The markets have been anticipating the ECB, from which we expect a package of measures tomorrow capable of bringing market interest rates back up, in order to give oxygen to the banks. But there is not only the expectation of the Frankfurt directorate. Markets reacted very coldly yesterday to Reuters anticipations that the new Italian government is considering raising its 2020 deficit target to around 2,3% of GDP from 2,04% expected this year to ensure 12 billion more resources but fueling the skepticism of operators and rating agencies. Moody's, while not changing the rating from the current Baa3, noted that Italy has "high levels of public debt, which will probably decrease little in the next few years, given slow growth and the lack of a coherent economic agenda".
BUSINESS SQUARE (-0,55%) ONLY SQUARE IN RED
The tensions over the debt held back Piazza Affari -0,55%, the only market in the Eurozone to close in negative territory at 21.869 points.
The other lists rose: Paris +0,08% and Madrid +0,62%. Frankfurt also made progress (+0,34%) on the day of the illustration of the finance company which does not envisage "new debt". the finance minister, Olaf Scholf, has decided to present a balancing maneuver to the Bundestag, stating that the money available is sufficient to deal with the slowdown in the economy. “It is a growth-oriented budget” of around 360 billion euros, he declared in Parliament.
SCHOLZ: "MANY, MANY BILLIONS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT"
Scholz said the government was ready to pump "many, many billion euros" into the economy to counter any slowdowns and fight climate change.
London also recovered (+0,41%) on the day when Parliament closed its doors until 14 October. Johnson declares that in the meantime he will do his utmost to obtain an agreement with the EU. But it seems only a tactical choice by the Premier to avoid the accusation of not having sought an agreement, in view of an electoral campaign that promises to be heavy. In fact, the most probable scenario at the moment seems to be distrust after October 14, a caretaker government asking for the extension of the agreements with Brussels pending new elections from which the true balance of power between the radicals and the pro-EU will emerge.
BTPs GO UP TO 160. BUND AT 0,56%
Bad day for the Btp. To ballast the Italian paper – which has seen the spread go up to 160 basis points from 153 at the start and the yield rise up to 0,99% (+6 basis points) – contributed, in addition to the hypothesis of a target of 2020 deficit at around 2,3%, the start of the mid-month auctions which today provide for the placement of the annual Bot. At the end, the yield on the security maturing on 14 September 2020 was trading at -0,24/-0,25%, a sharp decrease compared to 0,107% in mid-August.
The 0,56-year Bund trades at -3% (+XNUMX basis points).
Italian industrial production could rebound in August, but remain stagnant for the entire third quarter, according to forecasts prepared by Prometeia after the data released this morning by Istat.
Italy collected as expected the appointment of Paolo Gentiloni as EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs in the EU Commission. But he will be watched closely by the executive vice president in charge of the economy Valdis Dombrovsky.
BANKS IN FIBRILLATION WAITING FOR FRANKFURT
Banks closed mixed after the morning's choppy performance. The rally is involving, to a more or less similar extent, all Italian and European banks. Investors are attracted by expectations of "extraordinary" maneuvers that could be announced by the ECB as early as the next meeting on Thursday.
Unicredit and Intesa closed at -0,38% and at +1,05%. Heavy Next which loses 4,24%.
Realizations on utilities: A2A falls by 0,77%, Snam loses 1.06%, despite rumors of a possible offer for a share of the Rover gas pipeline in the United States. Terna also down, down by 1,74%.
Enel -0,8%. Hera -0,3%. Italgas -1,1%
FERRARI CRASH -5,98%, FCA BRAKES
Atlantia -0,4%. The new Minister of Labor Stefano Patuanelli wants to close the Alitalia dossier immediately. Thus he urged FS and Atlantia to respect the deadline of September 15 for the presentation of the final offer and the signing of the definitive contract by the Newco which will also include Delta and the MEF Luigi Di Maio, leader of the Movimento 5 Stelle, has said in a tweet that his movement had clear ideas including the revocation of highway concessions.
Crash on the car. Heavy Ferrari, which leaves 5,98% of sales on the ground: the stock has risen by 45% since the beginning of the year.
FCA loses 1,23% after the declarations of the CEO of Renault, Thierry Bolloré, who spoke of "great regret" for the merger project with the Italian-American house, which now belongs to the past. Pirelli +1%.
BERNSTEIN AWARDS CAMPARI
Some broker reports are also on the way.
Amplifon -4,1%: Jefferies raised the target price to 25, but cut it to 'hold'.
Campari -1%: Bernstein improved his 'market perform' assessment.
