The study conducted by R&S Mediobanca analyzes the main nine Italian publishing groups owned by the major national news dailies, through the accounts in the period 2012-2016, including the first nine months of 2017. The study includes the comparison with the major newspaper publishers in Europe and an analysis of the global publishing industry.
THE WORLD NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY
Declining global information industry turnover: in 2016 it stood at $153 billion, down 8,4% from 2012. The reduction, however, concerns only i revenue from print advertising (-26,9% in 2012-16), while those from paper circulation increased (+3,4%), from digital diffusion (a remarkable +254,4%) and from digital advertising (+32%).
Despite the growth of digital, in 2016 91,6% of world turnover still comes from the press, a sign of how globally the majority of advertising investments and sales are still concentrated on traditional channels.
In the world of global publishing – whose three main squares are USA, Japan and Germany – the model is changing, from a paradigm centered on advertising to one focused on sales. In fact, the trend reversal that began in 2014 continues, when revenues from circulation exceeded advertising revenues: in 2016, 56% of the global turnover of the newspaper industry came from circulation revenues.
In this context, the digital advertising guarantees the publishing industry small profit margins: out of every euro spent on digital advertising, no less than 61 cents go to the so-called “advertising tech companies”1, especially BigWeb companies: Google, with 75 billion euros in 2016, captures the largest share of revenues from digital advertising (mainly through Google Search and YouTube), followed by Facebook, with 26 billion euros; in third and fourth place are the Chinese Baidu (9bn) and Tencent (4bn).
CIRCULATION AND PRICES OF NEWSPAPERS IN ITALY AND OTHER COUNTRIES
in 2016 in Italy the total print circulation decreased by about 300 thousand units, going from 2,9 to 2,6 million average copies per day (-33,3% compared to 2012).
In Europe things are not much better: paper circulation recorded a -20,5% over the same period. Globally, the decline is more contained in North America (-11,6%) and Latin America (-12,1%), while Oceania is the continent that records the greatest decrease (-30,7%) .
In Asia, however, the diffusion increases, thanks above all to the contribution of India, and marks a good +40,1% in the five-year period in question. The latter figure strongly affects the dynamics of world circulation, bringing it up to +21%.
in 2016 circulation of Italian newspapers (2,6 million copies) corresponds to little more than what was recorded by the first two Germans alone (Bild and Frankfurter Allgemeine, whose aggregate circulation is just under two and a half million copies) and less than that of the first two British ones (the sum of the circulation of The Sun and Daily Mail reaches 3,3 million copies).
It fits into this picture the top 10 of the most popular newspapers in Italy in 2016 for average copies per day (ADS data): in first place the Corriere della Sera (268 thousand), to which it follows La Repubblica (232 miles), The print (161 thousand), Il Sole 24 ORE (131 thousand), Il Messaggero (113 thousand), Avvenire (108 thousand), QN-Il Resto del Carlino (105 thousand), QN-La Nazione (80 thousand), Il Giornale (72 thousand) and Il Gazzettino ( 56 thousand).
A separate chapter is that relating to prices: European newspapers are on average more expensive than Italian ones. TOFor example, a single copy of the French Le Monde costs 2,40 euros, that of the German Handelsblatt 2,80 euros.
Bild, The Sun and Daily Mail cost less than half of other newspapers of information, but have a circulation of about five times higher.
WHAT IS THE SCENARIO OF THE MAIN ITALIAN PUBLISHING GROUPS?
The aggregate revenues of the nine main Italian publishing groups continue to decline, settling in 2016 at 3,7 billion euro (-25,7% on 2012). However, the 2016-2015 comparison indicates a slowdown in the decline in turnover. The top 3 by turnover in 2016 is made up of Mondadori (1,26 billion), RCS MediaGroup (968 million) and L'Espresso (586 million).
Employment is also reduced: the 3.422 units lost in the 2012-16 period bring the sector's workforce to 13.038 employees in 2016 (-20,8% on 2012). Over the five-year period, only Cairo Editore increased its headcount (+6,4%).
Turning to the accounts, the major Italian publishing groups accumulated net losses of 2012 billion euro in the period 16-2; only Cairo Editore and L'Espresso have always closed in profit.
Also industrial profitability was negative in the five-year period, albeit with a strong dispersion between the individual Groups: the 2016 ebit margin ranking sees Cairo Editore in first place (14,3%), Mondadori in second place (5,2%) and L'Espresso in third place (4,7% ); Il Sole 24 ORE (-15,4%) and Class Editori (-21,8%) followed.
in 2016 the financial structure remains solid on average, but very heterogeneous, with equity representing an average of 1,4 times the financial debts. The most solid in 2016 are Cairo Editore (without financial debt) and Caltagirone Editore, while the most fragile are Il Sole 24 ORE and RCS MediaGroup. On the investment front, there was a sharp downsizing: the 24 billion in 2016 marked a drop of 69% on 2012.
THE COMPARISON WITH EUROPE
Excluding Italy, the European publishing groups with the highest turnover for 2016 are German Axel Springer (€3,29bn) which publishes the newspapers picture and die world, and two companies in the UK market: theAssociated Newspapers Ltd. (€759m) which owns the Daily Mail and News Group Newspapers Ltd. (€521m) which publishes The Sun.
How are they doing the big players of the main European countries? The comparison between Italy, France, Germany and the UK sees our country and France leading the way in terms of turnover contraction in 2016-15, with Germany and the UK reporting a slight increase, and bringing up the rear in terms of solidity financial; Italy last for investment rate in 2016. The best industrial profitability is recorded by Germany with an Ebit margin of 7,4% in 2016, while Italy (-1,3%) and France (-3%) are negative.
In the period 2015-16 the revenues of European publishing companies fell by an average of 1,8%. examined which belong to the news newspapers, while the revenues of the companies that publish business publications go against the trend (+2,7% on average).
