EDISON, AIR OF REVENGE FOR THE SAVINGS. AFTER THE ARBITRATIONS A COUPON IS POSSIBLE
It's a game, in terms of money, very small. The total capitalization of Edison savings, which “survived the delisting of the Foro Buonaparte share on 10 September last, is just over 90 million euros. In addition, 67% of the stock is in the hands of a single institution, the Swiss Ubs. But the affair is interesting for several reasons, as demonstrated by the constant rise of the stock in recent days from 0,821 on Monday to 0,847 euro this morning. Furthermore, since last September 10, the stock has in fact recovered about 30% against the 8% lost by the FTSE All Share.
The sudden interest is linked to the successful outcome of the international arbitrations on the price of gas. The team of the company, which came under the control of the French Edf, has achieved two important successes in the lawsuit on the price of gas. First the arbitration before the Court of Arbitration of the ICC (International Chamber of Commerce) which upheld the revision of the price of the supply of LNG (liquid natural gas) in Qatar, a decision which will have an impact on the 2012 financial year of 450 million euros on ebitda. Then, at the beginning of the week, there was a similar arbitration sentence against Eni, also in this case linked to the revision of the long-term take or pay contracts with the producing countries (Libya) no longer aligned with those, much lower, applied on the market.
The discount this time was 250 million euros. The positive impact on 2012 EBITDA, if we add the 450 million obtained last September 11 (the day after the delisting of the ordinary shares, a suspicious combination…) is 700 million. But the Edison team, led by Pierre Vergerio and the head of the Legal Marco Lorefice, has good reasons to aspire to the "treble", winning a similar lawsuit against the Algerian Sonastrach.
In short, Edison's Italian shareholders, from Delmi to Roamin Zaleski's recalcitrant Tassara (forced to sell reluctantly given the amount of debts accumulated), have good reasons to bite their hands like the other ordinary shareholders. Savings stockholders can hope for dividend return, even if business prospects remain more than uncertain. But the rain of cash could allow the distribution of a coupon to savings members, it is whispered in Piazza Affari At least 5 cents which should be added to the recovery of two coupons (related to 2010 and 2011) skipped due to the budget redundancy, They make another 10 cents against a stock price of 28 cents.
If the painting turns out to be correct, it will confirm the well-known saying "He who laughs last laughs best". Savings shares, in fact, were excluded from the summer takeover bid on ordinary shares.
