By 2040, the global demand for copper e Rare lands will increase by 40%, while the demand for nickel e cobalt will surge by 60-70% and that of Lithium it will almost double (+90%). The reason is simple: they are essential raw materials for the ecological transition, an effort in which all the major economies of the planet are and will be engaged. At the current rate, in the next twenty years the demand for minerals to produce technologies with a reduced environmental impact is destined to double. If, however, the world really tries to achieve the goals of the Paris Accords (limiting the increase in temperatures to less than two degrees Celsius), the need would quadruple.
The estimates are contained in a report by the International Energy Agency (The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions). The study points out that the consumption of mineral resources of an electric car is six times greater than that of a traditional car, while the difference between an onshore wind farm and a gas-fired power plant is even nine times. The risk, then, is that the demand for these commodities will grow faster than supply capacity, compromising the energy security of some countries.
“The types of mineral resources used vary according to the technology – reads the analysis – Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese e graphite are critical to the performance, longevity and energy density of batteries. The elements of Rare lands they are used for permanent magnets, which in turn are vital for wind turbines and electric vehicle motors. Power grids need a huge amount of copper need aluminum, copper being a cornerstone for all technologies related to electricity”.
The problem is that today the international protocols for energy security are designed only "to counter the risks of interruption of supplies and the price peaks of hydrocarbons, especially oil - explains the Agency - Minerals present different challenges, but their growing importance in an energy system tending towards decarbonisation requires energy policy makers to broaden their horizons and consider potential new vulnerabilities. Concerns for price volatility e the security of supply they do not disappear in an electrified energy system rich in renewable energies”.
According to Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, "the data show a discrepancy between the ambitions" of the international community in the fight against climate change "and the availability of critical commodities that are essential to achieve these ambitions". The solution exists: “By acting now and acting together – continues Birol – the risks of price volatility and supply interruptions can be significantly reduced”. However, "if not addressed, these potential vulnerabilities could make global progress towards a clean energy future slower and more expensive" than expected.
Therefore, the IEA recommends that governments take action on six fronts:
- Ensure adequate investment in diversified energy sources to increase supply channels.
- Promote technological innovation on both the demand and supply sides.
- Increase recycling.
- Improve supply chain resilience and market transparency.
- Promote higher environmental, social and governance standards.
- Strengthen international collaboration between producers and consumers.
