Growth estimates improveLombardy economy: +0,8% GDP and +1,2% employment in 2023. This is what emerges from the latest Economy Booklet edited by the Assolombarda Study Center. Improvement that is confirmed by the data released by the European Commission (estimates of the Italian GDP revised upwards) and by the indications collected by Assolombarda with the "flash survey on business sentiment" at the beginning of May (37% of companies predict a positive 2023 for the regional economy, up 28% in January).
"This result confirms the stability and economic vitality that we had repeatedly reported in the first months of the year with reference to Lombard companies - commented Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda –. Despite a global context in deceleration, the renewed competitiveness and historical flexibility have allowed our companies to achieve positive results and to find new market spaces. However, there are critical elements to monitor. Above all, inflation, which we hope will decrease during the year”.
Untraceable professional figures
But the president of the association is also worrying difficulties in find professionals adequate on the labor market, “a problem that affects 45,6% of planned recruitments. We are facing a real skills emergency that risks becoming unsustainable due to the competitive challenges to which we are called. In this scenario, ITS are in absolute contrast, with an 80% employment rate of their graduates at national level, with peaks of excellence in some sectors of our territory, such as mechatronics and ICT. It is therefore necessary to proceed as soon as possible with the implementation of the ITS Reform and with the completion of the procedure for allocating the residual resources envisaged by the PNRR (700 million), enhancing the planning role of the regions on the territory”.
The sentiment of local businesses improves despite inflation
Contributing to these data is the easing of pressure on prices: most firms believe that theinflation it will drop in 2023 (52%) or remain stable (31%), although the decline is slower than the first forecasts. As for energy prices, 44% expect further declines over the year
According to Istat data, the climate has dropped by manufacturing business confidence in the North-West and in Italy during April, while that of service companies in the North-West grew (highest value since July 2022), due to more favorable corporate trends and expectations on growth orders.
Lombardy economy growth by zone
Dividing by zones, the new estimates see the added value of Milano rise by 5%, with estimates for 2023 of an expanding economy of 1,3% (an improvement from the +1% forecast at the beginning of the year), while on the labor front an increase in employed persons of 2,8 is expected %.
For Monza e Brianza, the added value of the province is expected to grow by 0,3%, with an increase in employment estimated at 3%. The Lodi economy is expected to improve by 0,9% in 2023 (+0,4% last January), while employment is estimated to grow by 1,4%.
The expansion of the added value of Pavia it should be 0,7% (against estimates of +0,3% in January), with a 1% drop in workers expected.
