After more than a hundred days of war, how the world economy behaves? Can the risk of recession be avoided? Through which channels and with what timing could this risk materialize? And why could it be avoided instead? There are divergences between the world's major economies, ie USA, Euro area and China, and which? Which sectors are suffering the most and which are doing well in the current environment? Who, in the population, is most affected by inflationary flare and with what consequences for the whole economy? Will inflation affect the reopening recovery after the easing of anti-covid measures? Above all, will it turn out to be a flare of straw or will it not be extinguished quickly and painlessly? How far will they go interest rates short and long, on both sides of the Atlantic? How will exchange rates move? And the bags, which have recovered from the lows reached in mid-May, will they remain weak or will they strengthen?
Questions about the economy flock to the end of spring, which this year hasn't been as beautiful as Botticelli painted it. They answer the hands of the economy, the monthly analysis column of short-term scenarios, with a focus on the medium and long term, edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi. Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the June 2022 edition.
