THEItalian economy surprises analysts and forecasters: in the third quarter of the year, from July to September, according to Istat il Italian GDP grew by 0,5% on the previous quarter and by 2,6% on the same quarter of 2021, removing the specter of recession at least for the moment. A figure far higher than the estimates: the forecasts of the Parliamentary Budget Office, made just two weeks ago, indicated a drop of 0,2%, warning that the figure was destined to worsen in the fourth quarter, while Bank of Italy had indicated a marginal decline.
Despite the better-than-expected data on Italian GDP, Business Square and spread continue unchanged.
The growth already acquired for 2022 thus rises to 3,9% (against the 3,3% indicated by Nadef), underlines the institute in its comment note. The latest data, even if slowing down compared to the previous quarter, is the seventh consecutive positive: after +0,1% in the first quarter and +1,1% in the second.
Il seasonally adjusted data provided today takes into account the fact that "the third quarter of 2022 - explains the statistical institute - had three working days more than the previous quarter and one working day less than the third quarter of 2021".
Italian economy growing: services are doing well, industry is declining
The cyclical change is the synthesis of a decrease in added value both in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, and in that of industry, which are greatly affected by the increases in energy prices, often forced to interrupt production in order not to operate in loss while services recorded an increase. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the domestic component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component following a growth in imports greater than exports.
GDP growth slows down in the Eurozone: +0,2% in the third quarter
in the rest of theEurozone GDP is still growing but the trend is slowing down: GDP increased by 0,2%. In the second quarter of 2022, GDP had grown by 0,8% in the euro area and by 0,7% in the EU. According to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, among Member States the Sweden (+0,7%) recorded the highest increase over the previous quarter, followed by Italy (+ 0,5%), Portugal e Lithuania (both +0,4%). Behind Germany (+0,3%) and France and Spain by 0,2%.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2,1% in the euro area and by 2,4% in the EU in the third quarter of 2022, after +4,3% in both areas in the previous quarter.
As far as the 'inflation, that of the euro area is estimated at +10,7% in October 2022, up from 9,9% in September.
