“We live, at best, on the threshold of an era that can be defined as «zero sum»: more and more the benefits that a country obtains are the result of subtractions from other countries”. The diagnosis leaves very little hope Mario Deaglio ago of the post-global economy in the recent Report on the post-global world entitled "From the myth of abundance to the economy of enough". At least in appearance, because right from the title the team's analysis of Einaudi Center led by Deaglio suggests an alternative recipe, namely "enough", as a measure of equality and hope. A virtuous formula for a complex season, probably long and fraught with difficulties.
Economy of enough and the post-global world
No, it is not a question of passing from the myth of infinite growth to the millenarian suggestion of degrowth dear to the grillini of the first hour or with massive doses of austerity. But to deal coldly with the limited resources of the planet. The philosophy of enough implies, unlike that of abundance focused on the present, a vision that takes great account of the future. “In the past – says Deaglio, the economist who directed Il Sole 24 Ore – a purely materialistic vision of reality was often privileged. But the people, especially the young, are now asking for something more. If anything they claim one freedom of choice which has been progressively limited over the years". Not only has the run of thesocial elevator, but here and there, especially in the United States, already a land of opportunities, “schools and institutions spring up that separate children by census from early childhood. In a society conceived in this way it is not difficult to understand the explosion of homicidal rage.
Among the negative legacies of the global economic season, which also had many merits, the weight that i social changes have imposed large doses of stress at all latitudes, waiting for developments that have often been very different from expectations. It is as true for China as it is for Poland: who would have expected the spectacle of half a million demonstrators in Warsaw contesting a post-communist government. Once the roaring phase, which began with the fall of the Berlin Wall, has ended, global GDP has become more vulnerable, not only due to more or less acute phases of crisis, but also because the system has increasingly consumed non-reproducible resources. Hence the need for a change that opens the door to sustainable future balances. Based on new strategies and policies, the result of institutions capable of creating a new pact with citizens.
Inflation destined to rise to favor the energy transition
As has happened since Adam Smith, the economist's message contains a strong ethical charge, under the banner of renewal. It will not be easy to convince voters that, once the season of deflation supported by cheap manufacturing in emerging economies is over, economies will likely have to resign themselves to higher inflation rates, including the effort to combat global warming and facilitate the energy transition . A novelty that will probably lead to major changes in consumer items.
Globalization is waning but there is no protected island…
With the decline, at least partially, of globalization, production chains are shortened. The crux of the environment, of energy, but not only, is looming. “I think about drought, an age-old problem which will ask us for severe solutions at the level of regional areas. By now the real problems go beyond the borders of individual countries”. Globalization, as we have conceived it in the past, is now a thing of the past. However, no one will be able to afford to behave like an island surrounded by closed borders. Archipelagos connected by common needs and problems will be born, says Deaglio. It's basically what's left of the ′′ mutual benefit ′′ of last season. Trade is less and less free; the «global value chains» are increasingly worn out and less and less global.
…and everyone plays pick-up
«A new destructive logic threatens globalisation» wrote, at the beginning of 2023, The Economist – for almost two centuries the standard-bearer of a pragmatic global liberalism – hinting at a «dangerous slide towards subsidies, export controls and protectionism» . Everyone "plays the game", writes Deaglio referring to the card game in which, rather than accumulating points, one tries to take away the "deck" accumulated by the other participants with a single move: all countries try to induce companies to transfer - often in their own country of origin – offices, factories and management centers closing them even where it costs less to produce. At best, world GDP growth slows down and, as everyone tries to produce at home, the incidence of international trade on world GDP has stopped increasing. One consideration: let us not delude ourselves that we can return to the objective of a 2% price increase. Bankers will have to revise their accounts upwards. What is this vicious circle due to? The first major cracks, the author recalls, appeared in 2008-2009 with the so-called "Great Recession"; then ailments of various kinds were added, from the pandemic to climate change to the Ukrainian war. Furthermore, an increasingly profound, increasingly evident and increasingly politically relevant social – as well as economic – unease has emerged.
The economy is in trouble, is it the revenge of politics?
At the same time it went up in smoke the illusion of the primacy of the economy over politics. Bill Clint's slogan (“it's the economy stupid”) takes on a sinister flavor in the face of the apparent absurdity of Brexit or other manifestations that contradict economic rationality. A revenge of politics? In reality, good politics would take much more to master a complex season. “Development as we have known it in recent decades – he commented the president of Intesa Gian Maria Gros-Pietro – began to deprive the planet of resources. We have to be more planet conscious, we are changing it and we must take responsibility for it”.
