It thundered so much that… it didn't rain? The clouds on the horizon in the spring of 2022 were very black and the Economy hands several times they headlined warning against the risk of a recession, which would arrive between autumn and winter. And now that autumn is behind us and winter has already begun, the economic downturn is there, but it doesn't seem to have the character of the dreaded destructive cyclone. How come? What is driving demand and production? The redde rationem Is it just postponed or do we get away with it this time? In which areas is there the greatest suffering? In the USA or in the euro area? And how is Italy behaving? Is China's reopening a relief, because it puts a powerful engine in the global convoy back into motion? Or will the great contagion hit that population hard and sap their economic momentum, even if only temporarily? Inflation has begun to fall and the marked decrease in the prices of energy goods will curb it more rapidly: won't there be the dreaded run-up between prices and wages? Will central banks be able to sheath the smoking gun of rate hikes? What will happen to the Stock Exchanges, which seem to be biting the brakes to launch themselves upwards again? How will exchange rates move? Will the dollar continue to lose ground against the euro?
The hands of the economy of January 2023 answer these and other questions. Fabrizio Galimberti e Luke Paolazzi and published on FIRSTonline.
