Eba, off to the stress tests: Btp rates at 6% in an adverse scenario

The European Banking Authority has published the criteria for the stress tests it will conduct with the European Central Bank and the national supervisors – The results will be published in October – The 124 main banks of the old continent are involved, including 15 Italian ones.

Stress test, instructions for use. They came from AEuropean banking authority (Heba) On methodologies, criteria and macroeconomic scenarios of reference for the 2014 European stress testswhich the EBA will carry out with the European Central Bank and national supervisors (the results will be published in October) and which will involve the 124 main banks of the old continent including 15 Italian.

Looking precisely at Italy, the EBA hypothesizes a contraction in prices in Piazza Affari greater than that of the euro area and the European Union, with a drop of 20,3% in 2014, 17,7% in 2015 and 20,4. 3,3% the following year. On the real estate front, however, Italy would show better results than the Eurozone, recording a drop of 5,2% this year and 6,9% in the following two years. Conversely, the euro area would show a decline of 2014% in 11 and 2015% in both 2016 and XNUMX.

On the other hand, bad news on the spread front: uncertainty about US monetary policy would lead the Btp-Bund spread to rise by almost 100 points to around 250 basis points, while the Btp yield would accelerate again to 5,9% in 2014 compared to 3,9% of the baseline scenario, to 5,6% in 2015 compared to 4,1% and 5,8% in 2016 (from 4,3%). For the euro area, the yield should settle in the three-year period 2014/2016 between 4,2%-4,3%.

A total of 15 Italian banks will be examined: Banca Carige, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Piccolo Credito Valtellinese, Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna, Popolare di Milano, Popolare di Sondrio, Popolare di Vicenza, Banco Popolare, Credito Emiliano, Iccrea Holding, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca – Financial Credit Bank, UniCredit, Ubi, and finally Veneto Banca.