The scenario that emerged from the first round of the presidential elections, held last October 5, shows a Brazil split in half, with the north and north-east regions (historically the most backward in the country) firmly in the hands of outgoing president Dilma Rousseff and the centre-south moved further to the right, towards the Social Democrat candidate Aécio Neves. A snapshot that reflects the polarization between the two major parties in the country, the Workers' Party (PT) and Social Democracy (PSDB), which has continued uninterrupted since 1994.
Not even the environmentalist Marina Silva, who proposed herself as a third way for change, has managed to scratch the duopoly: in the first round she garnered a disappointing 21% after taking over an already ongoing electoral campaign from socialist candidate Eduardo Campos (who died in a plane crash in August). The emotion generated by the tragedy temporarily threw her at the top of the polls, but the former environment minister of the Lula government was then unable to keep up with Dilma's electoral war machine. During the ballot you declared that you will support Neves because you "believe in alternation", but whether there will be a transfer of votes remains to be seen.
In any case, the Brazilians will be called to the polls again on 26 October. While the polls show Rousseff and Neves paired in voting intentions, only the ballot will tell if the line of continuity on social policies will prevail with strong state interventionism in the economy promised by the outgoing president or if the voters will choose the more liberal policy, but without give up the welfare introduced by the last left-wing governments, proposed by the dynamic social democrat. The two vie for 25 million undecided voters.
On one side, Rousseff can boast undeniable successes on the social front initiated by Lula and carried forward in the last 12 years, with a new middle class rising to consumption and unemployment at historic lows. On the other, Neves proposes himself as the only credible alternative to 59% of voters dissatisfied with the management of the Workers' party, overwhelmed over the years by numerous scandals, the latest in chronological order the one that is devastating the top management of Petrobras, the government-controlled oil giant, with very serious allegations of corruption.
Whoever will be the new president, will have to deal with a Extremely fragmented Congress, in which 22 parties sit, and from which the Workers' Party of the outgoing president emerged weakened (-18 deputies) and Neves' social democracy slightly strengthened (+10 deputies). In any case, to ensure stability, the government will have to satisfy a large number of parties and small parties. To get out of the swamp, both candidates promise political reform, with different nuances, to change the electoral law and the institutions.
CONSERVATIVE PARLIAMENT
Whatever the outcome of the ballot, the polls already seem to have frustrated the desire for change expressed by millions of Brazilians in the oceanic demonstrations of June-July 2013. The new president, who will govern until 2018, will in any case be the expression of one of the two parties that have been contending for the country for 20 years, or for six consecutive elections.
But above all, according to a study by the trade unions, the conservative front within Parliament has grown strongly. About 40% of the Congress has been renewed, but the number of benches occupied by evangelical exponents (at least 40 are bishops and pastors), military, policemen and landowners has increased, while that close to the unions has decreased.
Issues such as the decriminalization of drugs, gay rights and abortion (Brazil has one of the most restrictive laws in the world) will hardly enter the political discussion in the coming years which promises to focus on the economy. Both Rousseff and Neves are aware that inflation needs to be kept under control and growth levels raised.
From Escape to Brazil
