Danger (almost) escaped in extremis for the European Union. For a handful the votes, in extremis, the candidate of the Greens for the Austrian presidential elections, Alexander Van der Bellen, beat the favorite of the far right, Norbert Hofer, denying it in the polls. The outcome offers a breath of fresh air to the EU in a very delicate moment: today the Eurogroup on aid to Greece is scheduled and tension is growing in view of the response at the polls on Brexit. Therefore, the green lifesaver thrown from the Danube is auspicious. But the geopolitical situation remains at very high risk.
On the market front, meanwhile, a strange calm reigns, in view of the possible turnaround of the Fed: the dollar is stable (1,12 against the euro). Oil slightly decreased: Brent at 48,1 dollars -1,2%, Wti at 48 dollars -0,7%. Weak Asian stock exchanges this morning. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index dropped by 0,7% in the middle of the session, in line with Hong Kong (-0,6%) and the Chinese markets: Shanghai -0,3%, Shenzhen -0,6%. The Wall Street indices moved little last night: S&P 500 -0,21%, Dow Jones -0,05%. NASDAQ -0,08%.
APPLE AND MONSANTO CHARGE WALL STREET
However, the general trend should not mislead. The American session was characterized by strong fluctuations in some sectors, starting with agribusiness. Monsanto flies (+4,14%), after the German Bayer officially announced the launch of the takeover bid on the American group, world leader in seeds, offering 122 dollars per share, for a consideration of 62 billion dollars and a premium of 37% compared to the closure of 9 May. Cfi also rose, announcing its intention to take over the fertilizers of the Dutch competitor Oci.
But Apple above all thought of giving the market a boost (+1,27%). The Cupertino group, according to Economic Daily, has alerted its Taiwan suppliers in view of a production of 72-78 million iPhone 7, the new smartphone that will be launched by the end of the year. The news also favored the leap forward of the Philadelphia semiconductor index (+0,7%) and the Taipei Stock Exchange (+2,5%).
The Tribune group (-15%) definitively rejected Gannettt's offer for the Los Angeles Times and the Chicago Tribune. On the contrary, utilities (-2%) suffer under the pressure of a possible imminent rate increase.
WILLIAMS (FED) SIDES WITH THE HAWKS. COLOMB YELLEN MORE ALONE
After all, uncertainty reigns supreme as we wait to understand the Fed's orientation. Therefore, expectations are rising for Janet Yellen's speech on Friday at Harvard. Meanwhile, yesterday John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and James Bullard, his counterpart in St.Louis, predicted an increase in US interest rates. Notably, according to Williams, two or three monetary tightenings are still possible this year.
Attention is also focused on the US macroeconomic data released this week, a possible indication of the central bank's intentions. Home sales today, jobless claims Thursday. Yesterday the May manufacturing PMI was released, down to 50,5 points from 50,8 the previous month. Analysts estimated 51 points. The figure, above 50 points, nonetheless indicates a growing economy.
LONDON GIVES THE GREEN LIGHT TO THE SHALE OIL
Caution also dominated the European session as we awaited the outcome of the Austrian presidential match. The PMI data showed that the economic recovery is proceeding but at a slow trot, consistent with growth in the 0,3%-0,4% area at the continental level: the new stimulus measures of the ECB starting in June are by the way.
In London, the Ftse-100 lost 0,1%, the Dax-30 0,6%, while the Cac-40 fell by 0,5%. Even this morning, judging by the futures, the start will be downwards both in London and in Paris, Frankfurt slightly up. A historic turning point should be noted in the United Kingdom: for the first time in Europe, a license was granted to a fracking company to evaluate the presence of shale oil in Yorkshire.
MILAN EXCEEDS THE DIVIDEND EFFECT. BTPEI AUCTION CANCELED
Script aside for Piazza Affari, down 2,7%. But for the Milan Stock Exchange the decline was caused by the dividend effect (which weighed 2,17% on the index). Net of coupons, the drop (-0,5%) was less than that of the other markets of the Old Continent.
The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth estimate of the Italian economy in 1,1 to 1% from 2016%, warning, however, that the forecasts are affected by downside risks.
The sovereign debt market is calm. The Ministry of the Economy has informed that in the auction on Thursday 26 May between 2 and 2,5 billion euros of the third tranche of the Ctz 28/3/2018 will be offered. On the other hand, the auction of inflation-linked government bonds scheduled for the same date was cancelled, given that the new BTPEI 2022 was already issued via syndicate in May.
THE BILD SHIDS FCA. THE COMPANY: OUR CARS ARE IN ORDER
The fall of Fiat Chrysler was not mitigated by any dividend effect, falling by 4,4% to 6,030 euros due to the indiscretions of the German newspaper Bild-am-Sonntag, according to which the Berlin authorities found evidence that some diesel engines of the Italian company are fitted with software that tricks the emissions data. Rumors say that the sale of some FCA models could be banned in Germany.
The Fiat Automobile reply is dry: all models are perfectly compliant with European standards. The holders of the checks, valid throughout Europe, are the Italian authorities. The controversies also weighed on CNH Industrial (-0,5%) and Exor (-2,12%).
UNICREDIT D-DAY. GHIZZONI: THE INCREASE IS NOT USEFUL
Unicredit's D-day has arrived (yesterday -3%): the CEO Federico Ghizzoni should resign in the extraordinary board of directors which will kick off the governance reform. Ghizzoni himself, yesterday in Madrid, wanted to reiterate that there is no need for a capital increase for the group. Citigroup, which last week hosted a roadshow with the group's top management, confirmed the neutral rating and the target price of 4 euros.
The detachment of the dividend affected the prices of Intesa (-0,09%) net of the coupon (-6,14% the raw figure), which signed agreements for the sale of two portfolios of performing consumer loans, of total value of 2,6 billion euros.
MAJOR OPERATION ON VENETO BANCA. PRIVATE IN VICENZA
Ubi (-1,9%) and Banca Popolare dell'Emilia (-1,9%) were also down on the day of the coupon: the two banks are reportedly in ongoing contacts with Veneto Banca to verify a possible merger before the IPO of the Montebelluna company. According to the president of Intesa Gian Maria Gros Pietro, the capital increase of one billion by Veneto Banca aimed at listing should end positively with the support of the market, but if this were not sufficient then the Atlante fund should be used.
News in sight, meanwhile, for the Popolare di Vicenza. A private equity consortium (Centerbridge, Warburg Pincus, Baupost and Atlas) with Quaestio sgr which manages the Atlante fund (which owns 99% of the Bank) is negotiating entry into the capital with a significant stake in Banca Popolare di Vicenza. But the negotiations are stalled, given that the funds are not willing to pay the same multiple disbursed by Atlante and the latter cannot afford to record a capital loss on its first investment.
Positive day, net of coupons, for the insurance companies: Generali +0,9%, Unipol +1,1% (-8 and -4,48% if the dividend is not taken into account), Cattolica +4%. On paper, thanks to the maxi-dividend, the worst stock was UnipolSai (-8,22%).
ENEL ALLIES WITH MARUBENI. HIGHLIGHTS INWIT
Closing down for Enel (-0,9%) which yesterday announced a new memorandum of understanding with the Japanese Marubeni. The agreement on renewable energy was joined by the one on gas generation to be developed in the Asia-Pacific region , and particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Little move Telecom Italia (+0,1%). Conversely, the subsidiary Inwit was lively, jumping by 2,93%.
GEOX SUPERSTAR, SARAS AND SIAS SHINE
Outside the main basket, there was certainly no shortage of ideas. Saras (+3,5%) recovered part of the dividend detached this morning, 0,17 euro per share. The best stock was Geox (+6,1%), which posted a coupon of 0,06 euro per share. Sias (+5,8%) was included by Mediobanca in its Long portfolio (securities to be purchased).
Among the small caps, Mondo TV rose by 3,6% after signing an agreement with New Information Tech for the sale of 50% of the exploitation rights of Final Fight and Naraka, for the amount of 5 million dollars for each project .
Well Pierrel (+2,25%) inflamed by the announcement of the start of clinical trials of a gel for the treatment of periodontitis.
