Faced with the continuous and somewhat cloying ultimatums from Silvio Berlusconi to Giorgio Napolitano and Enrico Letta and the media performances of a political figure who very well symbolizes the crisis of the times but who will hardly go down in history as the pythoness par excellence, the legendary Daniela Santanchè, one can understand the fears of the Stock Exchange for the fate of the Government and the legislature. Some say that perhaps the delay with which Piazza Affari has become aware of the risk of a crisis is a bit suspicious, but the danger of a government crisis is in fact always around the corner and in the absence of a stable political guide we need to be prophets to imagine the upward leap that the spread would make. Without forgetting the many measures in the pipeline (from the IMU reform to the suspension of the VAT increase) that would end up in the attic.
Before wrapping your head, it's always good to reflect and wait for events. Guido Compagna he wrote on FIRSTonline on Saturday that the Cavaliere's is above all a bluff because, if the threat of overthrowing the government were to become a reality, it would end up turning into an own goal for Berlusconi himself and for the PDL. There are many who think so, even if the situation hangs by a thread and can get out of hand for anyone. But what advantages Berlusconi would derive from a government crisis is not clear.
Luciano Violante, jurist and former prominent parliamentarian of the Democratic Party explains it very well in today's Corriere della Sera: “If the Government fell, the Senate Immunity Committee would still meet and decide; Silvio Berlusconi may not be a candidate and would lose his political rights under the penal code. Furthermore - continues Violante - if we went to elections and if the PDL won with this electoral law both in the House and in the Senate, what would it do? Would you immediately change the Severino law and the Penal Code to dissolve the Houses again and have Berlusconi as a candidate?”. Absurd, simply absurd, but also improbable even if political desperation is never a good adviser.
Assuming and not granting that there will be a government crisis, one thing is certain: as long as he remains at the Quirinale (another variant to be evaluated in the event of an extreme crisis), Napolitano will never, ever dissolve the Chambers to postpone the country to elections with the Porcellum. First the Porcellum is changed with a new electoral law and then, in the absence of a government majority, it is back to the polls. Only Grillo - who has the merit or the fault of having brought Berlusconi back to the government - pretends not to understand it but, as we know, being a popular leader is something different from the job of a political strategist. Therefore, even if Letta falls, the outcome will not be an early return to the polls.
At that point, however, two scenarios would open up: either a Letta bis government or an anti-Porcellum Renzi government. Letta could remain at Palazzo Chigi in the not impossible case of a come to sense of the PDL but also in the case of a crushing of both the PDL and the grillini. It is no coincidence that the Gal parliamentarian, Paolo Naccarato, claimed today, again in the Corriere della Sera, that, in the event of a crisis, Letta could return to lead a different government majority and, so to speak, a strengthened "silent majority". by the many defectors who could emerge from both shores. The new government should have as its main objective the cancellation of the Porcellum and then the return to the polls.
It could also be a minority government, but it is not certain that Letta will lead it even if the prime minister is obviously the natural candidate to succeed himself and has the support of the Quirinale. But it will also be necessary to see what will be the final outlet for that other mad mayonnaise which is the Pd in the congressional phase. Certainly the interview that Massimo D'Alema released over the weekend did not go unnoticed. Having one eye on the Quirinale and above all wanting to return to the field, D'Alema has in mind above all the succession to Epifani and is working to bring his Gianni Cuperlo to the leadership of the party. As a tactician, he knows that he has to come to terms with Renzi, who he would see well at Palazzo Chigi. This is why D'Alema and all the anti-Bersani supporters are rooting for a Renzi government that will carry out electoral reform and then lead the country to a vote.
The hypothesis of a Renzi minority government (which could also count on Sel as well as a large part of the Democratic Party) to cancel the Porcellum is therefore the second possible scenario. but woe to reckon without the innkeeper. Would Enrico Letta and his friends allow themselves to be unseated so naively? And, above all, let us not forget that the task of forming the government is conferred by the Head of State and that only a few months ago Napolitano was not afraid to deny Bersani the task for an unlikely government of change that did not have the numbers to Parliament. Luckily, King George is still at the Quirinale.
