Help, the ship is going. Confindustria goes so far as to say that "Italy is fully hooked on the recovery, the highest since 2010", as confirmed by the growth in industrial production now on track to increase by more than 3% on an annual basis. In 2017, GDP grew by 1,6%, as no one imagined until just a few months ago. At this rate, the Cassandras' alarm sounds, an increase in the cost of money will be inevitable, precisely at the most delicate moment of the electoral duel. No euphoria, in short, also because the shares, after the long rally, have reached high quotations that are difficult to sustain. Or not?" It's the usual nonsense” dry liquid Giovanni Tamburi, the financier at the helm of Tip who made the optimism of reason the master rule for moving around Italy ever since the mantra of the inexorable decline of the Bel Paese reigned.
“In the meetings of the board of directors to which I belong – he says – in recent weeks there has been talk of recovery and the need to invest in order not to miss the appointment with the international demand that is growing. It is ridiculous to focus on an imperceptible rise in US rates instead of looking at the big picture. But that's where Tip's success lies." Meaning what? “Those who operate close to the Stock Exchange are forced to pursue daily performance. We, on the contrary, can appreciate and enhance industrial projects by supporting entrepreneurs who are the real asset on which to focus". A simple formula, a sort of egg of Columbus. But it works properly, as demonstrated by the success of Tip, already a living room of capitalism of medium-sized enterprises today so populated (150 members) as to require a theater to host the elite of our industry.
In short, from his point of observation, 2018 does not promise to be so bad.
“The basic figure is abundant liquidity, which will not be affected too much during the year but which, on the contrary, is destined to favor the full recovery of countries already in crisis, such as Russia which is emerging from the tunnel thanks also to the recovery of raw materials. I'm not worried about China. Of course, it is a country in debt, but it can count on a frightening internal demand which will be supported, moreover, by very ambitious but sensible programmes. At the very least, they will curb foreign purchases. But it won't be a big problem, given the liquidity around".
The rise in interest rates is certainly not painless.
“Interest rates will still remain low and unattractive for investors. On the contrary, the attraction towards equity investment will grow. It is within this framework that the question of stock market multiples, which are only apparently high, must be seen”.
What effect will Trump's tax reform have?
“It represents another boost to growth. Also for Europe which will be forced to react by lowering tax rates”.
But are there margins?
“I think part of the resources will come from the Web tax. The openness of Facebook is enlightening. Confirm that understanding is possible. And with the incoming capital it will be possible to finance new investments. Europe, with Italy in the lead, is already today the positive surprise of the global economy. The manufacturing industry continues to climb. As far as I can see, many factories are at the limits of their production capacity and find themselves at a crossroads: either to give up on orders or to return to invest. The second is good, it is the most common answer. In Italy, but not only. In fact, cases of cross-border shopping are multiplying. This is the case of Amplifon, Interpump or Prysmian”.
Yes, the landing in General Cable of "your" Prysmian received with a certain initial skepticism from the market. Why, in his opinion?
“Because, unfortunately, the market struggles to think strategically. The welcome to Prysmian is a good example of the limits encountered by the activity of the stock market operator forced to think in the short term without going beyond a short-sighted calculation. With this operation, the company, already leader in the cable sector, removes its weak point, ie its absence from the American market. Now it will be able to exploit its technological leadership on a market with excellent prospects. And let's not forget the synergies, expected to be at least 150 million. But let's not forget the precedent of the Dutchman Draka. In that case, the engineer Battista had initially taken into account synergies of around 100 million. In reality there were many more. The stock exchange will understand”.
Tip's partners have already figured it out.
“Our 150 entrepreneurs are very happy to be able to participate in capital operations in support of companies that have great development potential. Luckily it is a raw material that is not lacking in our parts. And the results are good."
It is no coincidence that the Tamburi Investment Partner formula is winning converts: Mediobanca's Epic project which involves families of entrepreneurs who are clients of Piazzetta Cuccia to acquire stakes in medium-sized Made in Italy companies is almost a photocopy of your business model.
Mittel is also moving in a similar orbit. And John Elkann explicitly referenced Tip when describing Exor's goals. Of course I like it. And there is no competition problem: there is no shortage of offers”.
How many dossiers are on your monitor today?
“Let's say about thirty companies. Not only Alpitour or Eataly which are starting to be protagonists in sectors in which Italy is or can be a leader. In addition to listing these companies, we are planning initiatives of all sizes. We have concentrated all stakes in start-ups and that of digitally active companies, such as Digital Magic or Talent Garden, in StarTip. Our hope is to involve the interesting initiatives that arise in Italy in collaborations with companies in our network or with our associates starting from the relationship with Digital Magic. The latest example for now is Alkemy, just listed on Aim, a digital marketing company that we have put in touch with some clients. We also represent the main Italian Fintech hub: we participate in the capital of nine initiatives. No one can say the same."
A first step towards banks, a sector you have never dealt with before.
“And we weren't wrong, judging by the results. No, I don't think Tip will do banking. Fintech is another thing. There, as in every other sector in which we operate, we are in direct contact with the entrepreneur and his choices. This is not the case in banks. You have to respond to the market but also to Italian and European regulators. It's the system with many filters, perhaps too many for my taste”.
Let's say a too political system. By the way, we didn't mention politics in the forecast for 2018.
“I don't think it matters much. We have acknowledged this year that the economy is so strong that it can handle Brexit or other seemingly momentous phenomena without major setbacks. I don't think that the elections can affect that much. Even if politics can cause great damage: this is the case of Ilva, probably the most important game for the country's industrial future. If we let Europe's most modern and efficient steel mill go bankrupt, the whole country would suffer”.
There are also positive cases. How should we judge the debut of the Pir?
“A great opportunity that has yet to unload a large part of its effects on the market. The managers wisely dosed the purchases on the stock exchange. Now the list can only grow, both in quantity and quality. Just like the prices that remain the real call to entrepreneurs to choose the path of listing. It is not easy to convince wealthy business owners to choose the market path. Now, however, the circuit seems to have started, also thanks to the SPACs, an expensive solution, but which has been successful".
In this regard, what future do you see for publishing?
“Less gray than you think. The value of the contents, sooner or later, will make a difference again. And you will have to pay."
In this context, after the capital increase, Il Sole 24 Ore could have a certain appeal. Perhaps to enrich the offer of the Espresso-Stampa group.
"My feeling is that, not immediately, the newspaper could end up in the orbit of RCS".
To conclude, 2018 should be Sergio Marchionne's last at the helm of Fiat Chrysler.
"I do not believe. Marchionne will leave only after signing an important alliance. The Magneti Marelli spin-off fits into this strategy: to create value by selling assets on the market for the benefit of strengthening the group. The ultimate goal is an all-out alliance of the automaker. An equal alliance, I mean, capable of guaranteeing a great future for Italian manufacturing, within a strong industrial structure”.
