“The Draghi government must be supported without ifs and buts, it would be crazy to face a crisis of the majority with an ongoing war, skyrocketing inflation and the energy crisis”. Antonio Misiani, head of Economy and Finance of the Democratic Party, is categorical on the consequences that could be triggered the day after the government crisis opens. Net of the reassurances of individual party leaders, the differences in the majority are becoming more and more numerous and consequently the country's economic problems risk receding into the background.
Senator Misiani, the managing director of the first Italian bank says that without Russian gas the country will go into recession. What is the Government's position?
«You can have different opinions on the Russian gas embargo. The fact remains that liberation from dependence on Moscow's supplies is a matter of national security. 40% of our energy needs come from Russia, a situation that is no longer sustainable. Not only economically but now as a matter of geopolitical order».
Is there no going back from this setting? President Draghi's trip to Washington also served to clarify the situation.
“The energy cord that binds us so dangerously to Russia must be cut. It will take time, but it has to be done."
Does the position of the Democratic Party coincide?
“It fits perfectly. We also strongly support the government's action in Europe where it is pushing for a ceiling on the price of gas and the decoupling of the price of electricity based on the type of source used for production. A common financial instrument is also needed to tackle the energy crisis. At the European level there are 210 billion euros to invest with the RePower Euthe road is right".
The latest numbers on the country's estimated growth in 2022 are becoming increasingly gloomy.
"We are very worried. A few months ago growth forecasts were 4.7%, now the European Commission has revised the estimates lowering them to 2.4%. The economy has stopped, we risk the third recession in 10 years. I don't see who should open a crisis in the dark".
Public finances are once again the subject of attention also from Brussels. Will Draghi hold the line not to make a new budget variance?
«In just a few months, the Government has allocated over 30 billion euros to households and businesses without a euro more in deficit than planned in October. In the meantime, the spread went from 100 basis points to 200 with the prospect of a progressive increase in interest rates. These alarm bells should not be underestimated: it is essential to do everything possible to avert the recession, but we must do it without jeopardizing the sustainability of the public finances».
If the parties aren't going to rock the government, with inflation getting out of hand, will it be the economy itself that will put the executive in difficulty?
«The Democratic Party will support whatever is needed to mitigate the effects of inflation for the lowest income brackets and for companies in the most difficulty. The government has already accepted many of our proposals: I am thinking of the 200 euro bonus for workers and pensioners, the discount for public transport and the strengthening of the social fund for rentals. The problem is that the difficulties will continue in the coming months as well and we must prepare ourselves for this scenario, extending a series of measures and in some cases reinforcing them".
For example?
«The electricity and gas bonus should be extended to families up to 20 thousand euros from Isee, today it is 12 thousand. For petrol and diesel, the cut in excise duties ends on 8 July and is very costly. For the future, a maximum price ceiling should be foreseen, as Slovenia has decided».
Should the measures on inflation continue to be linked to the energy emergency?
«Yes, inflation is still predominantly energy: in April, against a total annual rate of 6%, energy prices increased by 39,5% while other goods and services increased by 2,9%. The key choice to make is the gas price cap. If it doesn't pass at a European level, it must be done at a national level, just like Spain did".
There is the paradox of an economy that risks slowing down and at the same time there is a lack of workers in many sectors. Will you review the Citizenship Income?
«It needs to be reviewed along the lines proposed last November by the Saracen Commission of the Ministry of Labour. We need to eliminate a series of distortions and inequities, starting with those that discourage the search for work activities and greatly enhance the services for the insertion of employable RDC earners. That said, the correlation between RDC and a shortage of seasonal workers is controversial. In reality, a very serious and widespread problem of low wages and poor work weighs much more in Italy».
In which sectors for example?
«Vast areas of the services but not only offer shamefully low wages, often legitimized by pirated labor contracts. The only way to overcome this condition is to introduce the minimum wage in Italy as well, linking it to the minimum benefits of the most representative contracts».
If political instability increases, is there a risk of screwing up the Pnrr?
«The 51 goals of 2021 have been achieved. We have 100 goals on the calendar this year which are worth obtaining 46 billion euros. The implementation of the Plan is at great risk due to the cost of materials, the crowding-out effects of building bonuses and the limits of the local authorities' construction capacity. It is necessary to run for cover. The government is doing it, let's hope for the best. The implementation of the Plan on schedule is the only chance we have to leave 20 years of stagnation behind us».
With a global economy gone mad, interest rates on the rise, sovereign debt to be managed with great caution, is there really anyone who feels like taking Mario Draghi's place before 2023?
«The Democratic Party will run to win, to complete the implementation of the Pnrr and to reduce social, territorial and gender inequalities. We will loyally support Draghi until the end of the legislature. That said, after next year's policies Italy needs a government expressed by the will of the voters».
