The atmosphere of recession by now evident over the skies of Germany, the locomotive of Europe, but which is peeping out in Asia and the USA (for the first time since 2009 is holding back employment in services) stimulates the search for new ways to overcome the low rate limits, necessary but not sufficient. Mario Draghi, now leaving the ECB, allows himself an incursion that was unthinkable until a few months ago. Citing the report presented in Jackson Hole by his former master Stanley Fisher, Draghi yesterday told the European Parliament that central banks, given the situation, should think about putting the money directly into the pockets of those who spend it, whether public or private. For now only a provocation, tomorrow it will be Christine Lagarde's turn.
CHINA DENIES (HALF) ITS BITCOIN
Meanwhile, China makes it known that it will not soon launch a cryptocurrency after rumors to that effect had been circulating throughout the day. But the denial did not convince also because Beijing speaks of "partly false news". The People Bank of China statement also denied that Alibaba and Tencent will be the first companies to use the new payment system. The central bank has not denied that it is working on this issue, also because there have been signs of its commitment on this front. Meanwhile, the repo operations of the New York Fed continue to water the market with liquidity. In short, while the tariff war is not resolved and the falling oil price signals that worries about the Gulf crisis have given way to fears about the drop in global demand, the central banks are at work. But solutions, for now, are not seen.
In this context, the markets are about to experience a day that could prove turbulent on the Brexit front and for Donald Trump in the crosshairs for anti-Biden maneuvers in Ukraine. Yesterday the president could not stand the temptation to appear at the UN while the ovation for Greta Turnberg was being staged. A scene from Hollywood.
In Asia, stocks rallied tonight after sharp declines in Europe. but already yesterday evening Wall Street had closed slightly higher, showing a good resistance to the bad indications on the German economy that arrived yesterday morning.
NEW FINE FOR GHOSN: 15 MILLION DOLLARS
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Hang Seng Index is up 0,3%, the Shanghai Composite gains 0,7%, the Tokyo Nikkei 0,2%.
China's renminbi settled at 7,11 against the dollar after central bank governor Yi Gang scaled back expectations of further monetary stimulus.
Nissan and its former chief executive Carlos Ghosn have reached an agreement with the Security and Exchange Commission: Goshn will have to pay a million dollar fine and Nissan 15 million.
Skip for now the signing of the commercial treaty between Japan and the US. Tokyo non-internal sign until Trump offers a guarantee not to tax the Japanese car.
Tokyo's manufacturing activity fell to a seven-month low.
NETFLIX COLLAPSES UNDER DISNEY PRESSURE
The holding of the ISM, the US manufacturing index, supported the Wall Street indices: Dow Jones +0.06%, Nasdaq -0,06%, S&P 500 -0,01%.
Apple salt +0,5%: the Apple has won 10 out of 15 requests for exemption from duties on some iPhone components. Apple has announced that it will build the next generation of Mac Pro computers in Texas.
Netflix collapses (-3% after -5% on Friday) on the wave of the drop in subscriptions undermined by the launch of Walt Disney and Apple's services.
Brent oil is down 0,5% to 64,4 dollars a barrel, closing yesterday by +0,7%.
In Piazza Affari Eni apparently leaves 2,3% on the ground. But if the advance coupon of 0,43 euro on the 2019 dividend is taken into account, the change is positive by 0,2%. Tenaris -2,78% and Saipem -2,01%.
Gold barely moved at $1.525 an ounce after three consecutive days of gains.
ACHTUNG GERMANY. SERVICES ARE ALSO DOWN
Achtung! The German crisis, triggered by the decline in industry, has infected services and has now spread to the rest of the Eurozone. The PMI data that froze the price lists of the Old Continent in the morning were the setting for Mario Draghi's hearing in the European Parliament. The banker, close to the expiry of his mandate, did not mince words: "since my last hearing - he said - the growth inertia of the Eurozone has slowed down markedly, more than previously expected". “This slowdown – added – the central banker, “is mainly due to the weakness of international trade in a context of persistent uncertainty and linked to protectionist policies and geopolitical factors”. Given the diagnosis, Draghi's therapy is obvious: the easing of monetary policy conditions must continue.
BUSINESS MARKET PUBLIC DEBT ONE POINT DOWN AT 134,8%
Piazza Affari thus interrupted the positive streak that had lasted for five sessions. The index retreated 1,01% to 21,899 points.
The Bank of Italy has revised upwards the debt/GDP ratio for 2018 to 134,8% from 132,2% estimated in April. The revision reflects the effect of the different valuation criterion of postal savings bonds, the interest of which is now included in the public debt.
Istat revised the GDP growth rate downwards in 2018: +0,8% instead of 0,9%. The deficit, on the other hand, has been corrected upwards: 2,2% instead of 2,1%
Same script in Frankfurt -0,97%. Markit's PMI on German manufacturing purchasing managers' expectations fell to 41,4 in September from 43,5 in August, the consensus expecting a small recovery to 44. The composite index, also extended to managers of purchases of service companies, is even more negative, as it falls below the threshold that separates economic expansion from economic contraction, in September, the index reaches the minimum of the last seven years at 49,1.
The decline also involved the Eurozone composite index, this time not even sparing France, which is more linked to services than the German economy. Male Paris -1,05%.
MADRID PROMOTED BY RATING AGENCIES
Madrid -0,88%. Standard & Poor's upgraded Spain's credit rating to 'A' from 'A-' on Friday evening, with the outlook moving from positive to stable. Dbrs, on the other hand, improved the outlook bringing it to positive from stable, leaving the rating unchanged at 'A'.
THOMAS COOK CRISIS, JOHNSON SAYS NO TO RESCUE
London (-0,24%) limits the damages. But the increasingly concrete risk of a hard Brexit was added yesterday by the shock of the bankruptcy of Thomas Cook, the oldest travel agency in the world which leaves 22 employees and hundreds of thousands of tourists standing around the world and forcing the government of London to the largest repatriation operation ever carried out in peacetime.
Boris Johnson, struggling with the re-edition of the Dunkirk retreat, has promised to bring home the traveling British citizens (at least 160) and revealed that the government has rejected a bailout request that would have encouraged 'moral hazard'.
Today the supreme court will rule on the legality of the decision to suspend Parliament for five weeks. Meanwhile, a majority of Labor voted in favor of Jeremy Corbyn's line on Brexit: not to take a position when negotiating a new deal.
RACE TO BUND, THURSDAY 6,5 BILLION BOT
The winds of crisis have brought purchases back to "safe havens" starting with German bonds. The 0,57-year Bund trades at -142%. The good performance of the German paper prevented a narrowing of the Btp-Bund spread which closed at 0,82 points. The yield of the 0,92-year benchmark, on the other hand, close to the closing came to trade at XNUMX% from XNUMX% at Friday's closing.
On September 26, the Treasury will auction 6,5 billion 6-month BOTs.
THE BANKS SUFFER, SPOTLIGHT ON GENERALI
Banks in marked decline in Piazza Affari but the sector index -2,14% does better than the European figure (-2,7%). Loses hits Unicredit -3,44%, more tonic Intesa Sanpaolo (-1,18%). Mediobanca did better (-0,7%) supported by expectations of a new push in purchases by Leonardo Del Vecchio.
Generali (+0,36%) is one of the few blue chips to have closed in positive territory, like Campari +0,49 the market reference point in Bear sessions, Amplifon +0,72%. The utilities also advanced: Enel +1,44% and Italgas +1,62%. Snam (-0,3%) announced that it will buy 49% of the regasification terminal located off the coast of Tuscany from Iren, amount of the transaction, 345 million euro.
SALES ON JUVENTUS, PURCHASES OF MANAGERS ON MONCLER
The worst stock was Juventus (-4,75%), after the proposed capital increase for a maximum amount of 300 million euros and the publication of the 2018/2019 results. The majority shareholder Exor (-3,33%) will intervene pro rata with a commitment of around 190 million.
The effect of the incidents in Hong Kong continues in luxury. Ferragamo loses hits (-3,15%). Equita reduced the target price from 18,5 to 17,3 euros, confirming the hold recommendation.
Moncler -1,7%. Robert Philippe Eggs, Executive Director of Moncler, bought 43.373 shares of the company (about 1,4 million euros) between September 18 and 19 at an average price of 32,5572 euros.
INDIA MAKES PIAGGIO SHINE
Off the main list, Piaggio shines in countertrend, +3,5% after the detachment of the advance of 0,055 euro per share on the dividend for the 2019 financial year. The rally is favored by Indian tax reforms: Modi has decided to cut VAT .
