"Credibility: is the watchword: if the design of the economic policy of Draghi-Franco will be able to restore credibility in proportion to its ambition, then we will be able to win the bet immediately". This is what the Ref Ricerche analysts write in the latest of their periodical publications on the economic situation.
With the Update note to the Economic and Financial Document (Nadef), the government has defined a scenario "which aims at a phase of growth at sustained rates, the likes of which have not been seen in Italy for decades - writes the study center - The high growth rates indicated by the Government are in part linked, in the first phase of the forecast period, to the rebound effect determined by the reopenings”.
However, underlines Ref Ricerche, “there is something more ambitious in the government's programmes. It points to raise the potential growth of the economy increasing the growth rate in a first phase through a recovery of public investments, and, in a second phase, relating to second half of the decade, through the impact on growth of a set of reforms that mainly aim at making the administrative machine and the judicial system more efficient”.
A program that analysts judge “ambitious and risky at the same time. The risks lie in the very ambition of the objectives, and raise evident perplexities, taking into account the very weak results that in the past have been obtained by Italian economic policy in these areas. Moreover, these are policies whose implementation will take many years, which go beyond the horizon of the government in office. For this reason, it is not even correct to rely on the degree of commitment of the current executive”.
As a result, “the ability to achieve such an important flow of investments and, above all, of select works that they are actually able to strengthen the productive structure, will be the first test case for verifying whether the efforts of the economic policy are equal to the ambition of the programmes", underlines Ref Ricerche, adding that "it will also be important proceed with structural reforms; although the impacts of these on growth usually tend to be perceptible only in the long run, the effects of a large reform program on investor expectations should not be overlooked”.
