"We will do whatever is necessary to get Japan out of 15 years of depression." Haruhiko Kuroda, the next governor of the Bank of Japan, used almost the same words in Parliament this morning as Mario Draghi did in July in defense of the euro. However, the reaction of the markets was tepid: Tokyo + 0,16%. Other Asian stocks fell (Hong Kong -1,56%) after the Chinese decision to tighten the requirements for real estate mortgages.
But attention this morning will be focused on Europe. Today the finance ministers of the Eurogroup will address the issue of aid to Cyprus, the spark that could ignite the old continent's powder keg. In fact, the Italian case will hover over the meeting, like the growing tensions in Southern Europe, confirmed by yesterday's gigantic demonstration in Lisbon against the pro-Merkel government.
The most eagerly awaited appointment of the week will be the ECB directorate, scheduled for Thursday 7. The OMT dam has not yet been tested. The markets are careful not to challenge the central bank in Frankfurt. But until when? From the Italian polls came a no to the austerity policy. It is therefore difficult to think that any new government could sign a memorandum of understanding, in any case required to start the purchases of securities, in line with the indications of the central bank. In short, the risk is that Draghi's moral suasion may no longer be enough. Unless another white rabbit pops out of the governor's top hat.
THE ITALY CASE IN FIGURES
Meanwhile, after the astonishment and irony, fear makes its way. Starting this morning, Italy without a political network is at a really big risk, as we already understood last Friday. The FtseMib index lost 1,5%, much more than the other European Stock Exchanges, which suffered much more minor declines: Paris -0,6%, Frankfurt -0,4%, Madrid -0,2%. London closed up 0,2%. Overall, in the first week after the elections, the Milan Stock Exchange fell by 3,4%, bringing the performance since the beginning of the year to -3,5%. After rising 7,1% in January, it fell 8,7% in February.
The entire Italian Stock Exchange capitalizes 322 billion, 17 less than the week before and much less than the total public debt issues planned for 2013 (410 billion). The most penalized sector was the banking sector -7,8%. On the government bond market, the yield on 10-year BTPs rose to 4,77% and the spread widened to 335 (+9 basis points). The worsening was also noticeable for the Spanish Bonos: the spread in favor of Italy was reduced to 31 points, half of the last pre-election value. Between 12 and 27 March, government issues for around 30 billion euro mature, mostly short-term BOTs and 3-year securities.
REST OF THE WORLD BEATS EUROPE
For now, however, the action of the central banks has allowed the financial markets to take off positively in 2013: behind Tokyo +11,7%, the performances of Zurich +11,4%, London + 8,15%, of the Standard & American Poor's +6,45%. The S&P index begins the week at 1565, one step (3%) from the absolute record established in 2007. The Dow Jones is 0,5% below its all-time high. But to beat the record it is necessary to overcome the sequester effect, i.e. the start of automatic cuts to American public spending this morning in the absence of an agreement on the budget.
BONUS, SWITZERLAND PUNISHES FAT CATS
Switzerland's excellent result did not prevent the citizens of the Confederation from approving yesterday with an overwhelming majority, 68%, a curb on the wages of the "big cats", ie the managers of the Swiss companies. From now on, bonuses on performances under a certain number of years, incentives in the event of mergers and acquisitions and other forms of benefits will be prohibited. The salary will have to be approved by the shareholders' meeting. Violators face up to three years in prison.
INSIDE BUSINESS PLACE
It should be the day of the white smoke for the sale of La7. Today, Telecom Italia's board of directors will examine Urbano Cairo's offer. There are still many knots to solve, which, at least in theory, could favor a return to the race of the private Clessidra, with the possible contribution of Diego Della Valle. But Claudio Sposito's offer on the multiplexes is considered too low, which should push Telecom to accept, without enthusiasm, the offer of the Turin patron as the culmination of a long and tormented process that started last July and is going on since December 6th.
It starts again after the rain of weekend sales. The hardest hit was Mediaset, which tumbled 8%. Mediolanum, a company in the orbit of Fininvest, lost 2,7%. Losses exceeding 4% for A2A and Enel Green Power. Enel fell by 1,8%, Eni -1,3%, Telecom Italia -3,5%. Heavy losses for industrial stocks: Fiat -2,3%, Fiat Industrial -4,1%, Pirelli -3,7%. Finmeccanica fell 4,6%. Among the banks, the greatest reductions are from Banco Popolare -3,4% and Mediobanca -3,5%. MontePaschi -2,2%, Intesa -0,1%, Unicredit -1,9%. Among the few stocks on the rise, Parmalat stands out +3% supported by the hypothesis of a delisting with takeover bid by Lactalis and Luxottica +1,7%, galvanized by the excellent results.
