AFTER THE STORM, PIAZZA AFFARI RELYS ON DRAGHI
BANKS AND FIAT GO HOOKING FOR A BOUNCE
Tanta fear for Ukraine, concern for Italy. Under this double pressure the Bags have started a downward turn, starting from Europe. In Asia the downside prevails this morning: Tokyo slips 0,2% , the other squares are also weak. The Asia Pacific index fell by 0,3%.
Holds upside down Wall Street: the Dow Jones index gained 008%, the S&P 500 0,02% and the Nasdaq 0,05%. Worth noting is the thud of Time Warner -13% after the withdrawal of Rupert Murdoch's offer. But it is Europe which, on the eve of today's meeting of the ECB, has returned to being the epicenter of the crisis, in a summer which, from cold, suddenly became hot.
E Business Square, unfortunately, in an emergency after the news that Italy, due to the fall in GDP (-0,2%) for the second consecutive quarter, has plunged back into recession. It's the third time since 2008. The Milan Stock Exchange, recorded a loss of 2,7%, the worst stock market in a largely negative European landscape. Piazza Affari closed at 19.509 points after having reached a minimum of 19.380, at the levels of February. The greater profit margin compared to the other European indices was squandered.
Down, albeit less dramatically, also the other markets of the Old Continent: Paris and Frankfurt fell by 0,6%, Madrid -0,9%. The negative data arriving from Germany weighed heavily: industrial orders in June recorded a drop of 3,2% on the previous month, the largest drop in the last three years. In Italy, a small consolation, industrial production rose by 0,9% on the contrary, beyond expectations.
BTP IN WITHDRAWAL. EUROPEAN QE CLOSER
Salt, in this frame, waiting for the ECB's moves. The geopolitical emergency could push Mario Draghi to accelerate the march towards the introduction of European quantitative easing. Today, in addition to reaffirming the low interest rate policy, the central banker will have to take stock of the other expansionary measures that will come into effect in just over a month.
The difficult climate also made itself felt, albeit to a lesser extent, on the government bond market: the yield of the 10-year BTP rose to 2,80% from 2,75% the day before, lo spread with the German Bund it widened to 170 (+12 basis points). The relevant figure is the race towards safe assets: the German 1,097-year yields 2%, the British gilt also falls (503) and the US 2,433-year yields 1,3333% The euro/dollar exchange rate moved this morning to new lows of the year to 1,337, from XNUMX the day before.
BANKS, UNICREDIT AWARDED AND SUBMERGED WITH SALES
The epicenter of the crisis was, predictably, the banking sector: The Italian Stoxx for the sector marks a drop of 4,2% compared to a drop of 1,4% for the European one. The popular ones suffer in particular. Bpm sank 7,89% hit by strong gains after shares of the Piazza Meda institute stood out for a gain of more than 40% year-to-date, the biggest gain among the blue chips. Bper leaves 6,6% on the ground, Ps 5,9%, Ubi 5,4%, Banco Popolare 4,8%. Also Unicredit it dropped 3,75% despite the shower of favorable opinions from analysts after the results for the first half beat expectations. Limit the damage Understanding -3,22%. Among the declining insurance companies Generali -1,8%. More marked the bending of UnipolSai 4,29%, which yesterday approved the accounts for the quarter. Net income rose by 4,5% to 357 million euros. Direct insurance premiums grew by 8,9% to 8,9 billion, with the non-life sector down by 7,1% and life up by 31,4%. The combined ratio at the end of the period was 94% and the solvency margin rose to 1,6x. Better data than the estimates of Kepler Cheuvreux and Banca Imi.
MARCHIONNE: IF THE FUSION FAILS, WE WILL TRY AGAIN
Fiat stock -5,55% is in the storm. Yesterday, under violent selling waves, the share slipped to 6,46 euros, well below the recessionary price to be paid to shareholders wishing to exit the shareholding structure, with the risk of blowing up the merger if requests are suppressed the threshold of 500 million. In the meantime Sergio Marchionne flaunts calm, if not confidence.” As of yesterday there has been no notice of withdrawal from shareholders and I am not perturbed. If the merger with Chrysler is blocked, there will be a new attempt later. The press has exaggerated the right of withdrawal and we are paying a price for this overreaction… lack of understanding of what it means”. The CEO of the group, who spoke to analysts on the occasion of the presentation of the Chrysler accounts, then added that he does not expect "to have data on the withdrawal until 5 days before the end of August".
ONLY PIRELLI SHINES, AWARDED BY CITIGROUP
Shines in the desert of Piazza Affari the star of Pirelli +1,3%, best blue chip after quarterly results higher than expected. The group closed the first half of the year with a net profit of 192,1 million, up 28,5%; EBIT rose by 12,6% with a profit margin of 14,3% (+2,1 percentage points). In a note, Citigroup commented positively on the strong growth in margins, especially for the premium sector, which rose to 16% of turnover, an improvement that will lead to 2014 margins of 14% higher for the entire group. The US bank confirms the Neutral judgment with a target price of 12,7 euros. Pirelli has a market capitalization of 5,44 billion euros, after the stock fell by 11% since the beginning of the year.
PATUANO: IN BRAZIL WE GO ON WITH OUR PLANS
“On Brazil, all options remain open,” he said Marco Patuano in the conference call on Telecom Italia results -2,6%. talking about possible mergers and acquisitions. "The fact that M&A activity has begun does not change our plans". Telephone on Gvt. On the South American front there are other situations in flux. As for the sale of Telecom Argentina, the "parties are determined to close," says Patuano, referring to the mid-August deadline. The group is also "very close to completing the sale of the towers in Brazil," he added. As regards the half-year accounts, Ebitda stood at 4,345 billion, down by 5,3% in organic terms compared to the same period of 2013, revenues at 10,551 billion, down by 6,5%. Net debt at the end of June amounted to 27,358 billion, the liquidity margin to 12,8 billion. Revenues on the domestic market show a drop of 8,3% in organic terms in the six months, in line with the second quarter (-8,2%) and with the first (-8,3%).
