Dollar superstar, in the wake of expectations for US employment data, the payrolls data. Consequently, the euro is weak, around the lows for two years around 1,2370 against the US currency. Merit of Mario Draghi, who reassured the markets: the ECB, without defections, is marching in the direction of a more expansive policy.
Words that contributed to the rise of the Asian Stock Exchanges, starting from Tokyo (+0,6%), which is starting to close the week up by 2%. Hong Kong also rose (+1,25%).
The US Stock Exchanges achieved the second consecutive historical record: S&P 500 rises to 2031,21 (+0,38%), the Dow Jones +0,40% closes at 17.554 (another absolute record). NASDAQ +0,38%. On the labor market front, the signals continue to be excellent in the USA. Yesterday's jobless claims (different from today's index) again surprised on the upside, and the 4-week average is at its lowest since April 2000, at 279.000. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5,9% today.
The march of the dollar accelerates the oil landslide: Brent is worth 82,43 dollars a barrel (-0,5%), US crude is 77,66 dollars. Vladimir Putin, in an interview granted to the Chinese media, spoke of an international political conspiracy behind the drop in oil prices which is affecting the Russian economy.
More music in Europe, grappling with increasingly alarming signs of crisis. The Draghi effect drove up the stock markets in the early afternoon, then optimism faded. With the exception of Madrid (-0,15%), the main lists remained positive: Paris +0,4%, Frankfurt +0,6%. London also rose +0,15%. Milan is confirmed as the weakest and most volatile stock market: the FtseMib index finished down by 0,73%, after registering a 1,2% rise in the early afternoon following the first statements by the president of the ECB.
The spread between Btp and Bund, after falling to 152 basis points in the wake of Draghi's words, widened to 156 basis points. The 2,39-year rate closed at XNUMX%.
“ECB, THERE IS NO FRACTURE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH”
Mission accomplished. Mario Draghi has convinced the markets that his leadership in Frankfurt remains solid. There is no shortage of discussions, he said, but "there is no opposition between bankers from the North and the South". The ECB is gearing up to pursue well-defined objectives, resorting to unconventional measures, without any preclusions, as demonstrated by the mandate to the staff to prepare for new operational scenarios.
In fact, if the Tltro and purchases of covered bonds and ABS prove to be insufficient to increase the ECB's balance sheet by the desired amount (at least one trillion), the purchase of private assets will be expanded to then move on to real QE. choice, Draghi underlined at the press conference, approved unanimously.
Words that the markets liked, as evidenced by the rise of the stock exchanges in the early afternoon. Then, the backtracking: the insistence on reiterating (three times) that further measures will start "only if necessary" was not appreciated. In other words, action will not be taken before 2015. In the meantime, as the president added, it is reasonable to expect that in December the ECB will lower its estimates in its next quarterly outlook on the eurozone economy.
BANKS FALL IN THE AFTERNOON, MPS -3,6%
As usual, the banks were the most sensitive thermometer of the market's moods. The sub-fund's Eurostoxx index closed with a loss of 1,4%: it gained 1,5% in mid-afternoon. Draghi's press conference has just begun, for example. Unicredit strengthened upwards to reach a maximum of 5,91 euros, only to then shut down along the way. At the close, the stock lost all gains to close at -0,9%.
Similar script for Entente -0,5% (from +2,4%). Popolare Milano -4,5%, Ubi -2,5% and Banco Popolare -2,38% also fell sharply. Equally volatile was Monte Paschi -3,6% (maximum at +1%) in the first test on the market after the launch of the 2,5 billion capital increase. Unicoop Firenze has definitively left the Sienese bank as a shareholder, as explained by the president of the management committee of the cooperative, Golfredo Biancalani. Unicoop Firenze had a stake of even more than 3%, represented on the board by Turiddo Campaini, who had also been vice president of the bank before leaving permanently for personal reasons in October 2013.
FINMECCANICA SUPERSTAR, PRYSMIAN IS RELAUNCHED
Finmeccanica comes to the fore (+6,25%), on the wave of quarterly results and, above all, thanks to the surprise increase in guidance. The new industrial plan for 2019 will arrive at the beginning of next year, while the management expects binding offers for the transport sector by 17 November.
The results for the first nine months show an overall improvement compared to the same period of 2013. The loss decreased by 82%, going from -236 to -24 million euro. All this due to the lower incidence of non-recurring charges and, to a lesser extent, financial charges and taxes. Ebita fell to 578 million euros from 665 million last year, but the figure is in line with expectations.
After the announcements seven brokers issued the Buy recommendation: Banca IMI, Equita Sim, Oddo, Banca Akros, Kepler Cheuvreux, AlphaValue, Hammer Partners. Mediobanca remains cautious confirming the previous Neutral. The only negative opinion, reiterated, is that of Deutsche Bank: for German analysts, Finmeccanica is a Sell with a target of 6,20 euros.
Positive closures for other industrial stocks: Prysmian +3,5% after communicating the results for the first nine months which are down on the same period a year ago due to the negative effects of the Western Link project without which organic growth would have been +1,7%, with confirmation of the upward trend in volumes in the Trade & Installers and Telecom cables market and the substantial stability of high voltage underground cables. Buzz +1,6%.
ENI RESISTS THANKS TO PROMOTIONS. TELECOM ACCOUNTS TODAY
The good results push A2A +1,2%, Enel is down by 0,9%. Telecom Italia lost 2,7%. Today there will be the conference call on the quarterly data. Contrasted the Oil sector. Eni +0,24% withstood the drops in the sector thanks to the positive assessments of Liberum Capital, which raised the rating on the stock from sell to hold (target price confirmed at 18 euro) and Santander, whose rating went from underweight to hold, even if the target price was reduced from 20,3 to 19 euros. Saipem rose by 1,68% to 12,12 euros, benefiting from the continuous speculation about the possible sale of the stake by the parent company. Tenaris (-3,77%), however, paid the disappointing quarterly.
