The distribution of bank dividends restarts, with many reservations. This was established yesterday by the supervisory body in Frankfurt, only partially yielding to the requests of the banks, worried about the minor appeal of the sector (-21% since the beginning of the year) in front of investors. Institutions will be able to distribute only 15% of the profits made in the last two years and no more than 20 basis points of primary capital (Cet1). “We estimate that the coupon distribution will be between 10 and 20 billion euros, about a third of a normal year,” said Andrea Enria, the chairman of the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Sector stocks were positive on Tuesday: Mediobanca +3,48%, Unicredit +1%. Intesa Sanpaolo +0,3%.
Meanwhile, the arrival of vaccines in Europe before the New Year and the agreement in the US Congress on the aid program for the economy have given new oxygen to the Bull, which resumed running this morning in Asian squares. The markets are confidently awaiting the decisions of the Fed, which tonight can only reaffirm the need to support the recovery with an expansive policy. In the meantime, the dollar index it is at its lowest level in the last two and a half years, confirming market expectations. Everywhere, companies are preparing for a season of great changes: it is true for Apple as for Volkswagen.
RECOVERY, SPAIN HAS ALREADY READY THE LIST
This morning the Financial Times reveals the projects that the Spanish companies Iberdrola, Seat and Telefonica presented in Madrid to use the funds from the Recovery Fund. The Bel Paese's agenda, unfortunately, ran aground on more political issues. Companies will pay the price for the delays, recalls Mario Draghi, "when the support programs will end and the equity of companies will be devoured by losses".
The new Nasdaq record (+1,25% to 12.595 points) deserves the lead. The Times Square index was driven by Apple's acceleration (+4%) in the wake of the forecasts of Nikkei Times: the Apple company, to keep up with demand, would have decided to increase the production of the iPhone 30 by 12%.
The rumors are also making their effects felt this morning on the Asian price lists: the companies active in the Apple telephony production chain, rise as anticipated yesterday by the leap of Stm in Milan. In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0,3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0,7%. The CSI 300 of Shanghai and Shenzen advanced by 0,2%, the Kospi of Seoul by 0,7%.
The Fang index, which includes the big names in China and the USA, makes a new leap forward. Baidu, the Chinese Google, advanced by 10% after announcing its intention to enter the field of electric cars. Tesla, awaiting entry into the S&P index, brings the gain from the beginning of the year to +670%.
Euro dollar up for the third consecutive day to 1,216.
STERLING STABLE AT 0,903. LIGHTER TAX ON SHIPS
Euro-sterling stabilizing at 0,903 after two days of sharp decline. The Financial Times reports that London is preparing a drastic revision of the fiscal legislation on navigation, so that, once free from the ties with the European Union, it will be able to compete with the countries that today attract the large shipping companies under their flags.
Brent oil is down slightly, at 50,6 dollars a barrel. According to the American Petroleum Institute, weekly oil inventories should have risen by two million barrels.
THE VACCINE GIVES THE CHARGE TO EUROPE
European stock markets are eyeing Germany. First of all, because the latest directives for the fight against the pandemic have come from Berlin: on the one hand, the health crunch, on the other, the decisive pressure on the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to bring forward to 21 December (from 29) the meeting for the approval of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine also in the Old Continent. But the awakening of Volkswagen also contributes to giving the charge, ready after the union agreement to start the run-up to Tesla.
Meanwhile, pending the decisions of the Fed, the race to the bottom of European bonds is picking up speed: the Spanish 0,009-year has entered negative territory, albeit only by 1,215%. Euro-dollar at XNUMX. Central Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn said the ECB was monitoring the exchange rate very closely.
FRANKFURT LEADS THE RESCUE
Piazza Affari closed Tuesday's session with an increase of 0,81%, at 21.935 basis points. Contrasted with the other price lists. Frankfurt is the best place (+1,05%). Paris (+0,5%) and Madrid (0,13%) moved little, while London (-0,25%) and Zurich (-0,31%) are down.
MANAGERS ALSO POSITIVE IN ITALY
The survey among Bank of America managers confirms the propensity to invest in shares. For the first time since 2013, large investors are underweight cash. Very strong propensity for emerging markets, for medium-small stocks and for commodities. Great Britain is the area on which there is more caution, which translates into underweight. For the first time in several months, Italy is perceived as possibly slightly overweight in the next 12 months. The favorite remains Germany.
At the end of October, Italian public debt rose to 2.587,0 billion, up by 3,2 billion on the previous month, setting a new record.
DRAGONS: LOW RATES, BUT GROWING IS COUNTING
Mario Draghi said yesterday that “according to all forecasts, interest rates will remain low for a long time. My conjecture is that, in the final analysis, the sustainability of the public debt in a certain country will be judged on the basis of growth and therefore also on how the resources of Next Generation Eu will be spent". If the latter “are wasted, the debt will eventually become unsustainable, because the financed projects will not produce growth. If, on the other hand, the rates of return on projects were high and such as to justify public investment, then growth would come and become the decisive factor for debt sustainability”.
RATES DOWN: RECORDS IN ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL AND GREECE
Record day for debt securities: BTPs (0,48%) reach new lows, together with the 110-year bonds of Spain, Portugal and Greece. The spread with the Bund drops to its lowest level in the last two and a half years, at 496 basis points. Pending today's buyback operation, the Treasury announced that it had used 2014 million euros from the government bond sinking fund to partially reimburse the Ccteu June 2020/December XNUMX.
VOLKSWAGEN SHAKES THE EUROPEAN CAR
After the peace with the unions, the battleship Volkswagen is back on track (+7,62%, over 150 euros). The supervisory board of the German car manufacturer has aligned itself in support of the industrial plan presented by the managing director Herbert Diess, which aims at a rapid conversion of the group towards the electric car and at the push towards digital in the factories, even at the cost of challenge union leadership. The harsh contrast was resolved with a victory on points: the heart of the electric car will always be Wolfsburg, as requested by the union. Ducati and Lamborghini also remain under the direct control of the house, while Bentley passes under Audi.
The recovery air infects the rest of the sector. Thanks to the rally that started at the beginning of November, the Stoxx index of the Automotive sector has eliminated the loss and is now traveling with a gain of 2% since the beginning of the year, a better performance than that recorded by the global Stoxx index, -2,5%.
A LUXURY MANAGER FOR FERRARI?
French stocks advanced: Renault +2,9%, Peugeot +2,8%. Fiat Chrysler was also brilliant (+2,21%). Ferrari also rises (+1,51%): yesterday the first board meeting was held for the choice of Lou Camilleri's successor. From what has transpired, it won't be a quick pick. Among the candidates there is, it seems, Mike Manley, who also will not be part of the Stellantis board. It is not excluded that the choice falls outside the automotive world: the Maranello house is now considered a luxury brand. The trail of a company boss arriving from Hermès (a fresh ally of Exor) or from the planet Lvmh (Delphine Arnault is on the Red Board) cannot be ruled out. Cnh Industrial also rose (+3,22%), promoted to buy by Deutsche Bank.
The sales hit Pirelli (-1,78%), after the placement of five-year non-interest bearing senior unsecured equity-linked bonds for a nominal amount of 500 million.
The luxury sector did well: S. Ferragamo +2,7%, Moncler +1,92%, B. Cucinelli +2,01%.
STM CANCEL THE FALL. GOOD LEONARDO
Day of recovery for Leonardo (+3,8%), driven by the increase in defense spending planned by the government.
Stm also rebounds (+4,45%), the best stock of the day, which thus begins to recover part of the losses suffered in the session of last December 10, when it closed the trading day with a thud that came close to 12%. The crash followed the company's decision to postpone its $12 billion revenue ambition for a year and lower margin guidance. However, in the last month the stock has registered an increase of 3,97%, while the performance over the last 6 months reaches +31,31%.
ATLANTIA BOUNCES, TIM BRASIL CONQUERS OI
In evidence Atlantia (+3,03%): the Board of Directors has approved the Aspi demerger project. Oils were also positive: Tenaris +1,22%, Saipem +1,21%, Eni +0,85%.
According to the International Energy Agency, “it will take several months for coronavirus vaccinations to start supporting global oil demand”.
Telecommunications +0,31%. Tim Brasil won the consortium tender with Telefonica Brasil (Vivo) and Claro to win the mobile assets of the Oi group. The total value of the operation is 16,5 billion reais (2,7 billion euro).
CAMPARI -2,18%. COVID DOESN ' T LIKE APERITIVE
Campari loses ground (-2,18%): Jefferies reduced the target price from 9 to 8,9 euros, confirming the hold recommendation. For experts, "the impact of the second wave" of infections from Covid-19 will probably put estimates under pressure in the short term, but the company remains "a single asset", with various options in terms of M&A. Ebit expectations are lowered by about 10% on 2020, while they are substantially confirmed for 2021-2022. However, the worst performances of the day were those of Recordati (-2,73%) and Amplifon (-2,38%).
