2023 will be another record year for dividends international. This is certified by the Global Dividend Index of Janus Henderson according to which the current year is destined to close with a total dthe $1.640 trillion coupons, up 5,2% (+5% underlying) compared to 2022 which was already a more than positive year in itself.
Dividends, a record 2023: thanks to the extraordinary coupons
In the first quarter of 2023 alone, global dividends reached a new record reaching 326,7 billion dollars and recording a 12% increase compared to the same period of 2022. Contributing to the record figure are above all the extraordinary dividends, reached the highest level in the last nine years. If we exclude these "special" coupons, the effects of exchange rates and other technical factors, in fact, the amount of dividends distributed in the first 3 months of 2023 records an underlying growth of 3% compared to last year.
But there's more: according to Janus Henderson, globally 95% of companies have increased or confirmed dividends in the first quarter. A trend which, despite inflation, geopolitical crises and current uncertainties, has allowed the asset management company to revise upwards its forecasts for 2023, estimating a growth in dividends of 5% to 1.640 billion dollars. In the next three quarters, therefore, growth will continue but will be slower than in the first.
Dividends 2023: boom in extraordinary coupons for the auto sector
The first 3 months of 2023 were golden for i extraordinary one-off dividends, which reached 28,8 billion dollars, the second highest figure ever recorded after the first quarter of 2014. Taking the lion's share was the auto sector which disbursed a total of over a third of the special dividends in the period, tenfolding the amount distributed in the first three months of 2022 by the sector. The credit for this (almost) record goes above all to two car manufacturers: Ford and Volkswagen. The German company, in particular, has decided to disburse 6,3 billion euros to shareholders, most of which deriving from the Porsche IPO.
New coupon record in the US, distributions in the mining sector collapse
Janus Henderson's analysis concerns the first quarter of 2023, and it is therefore normal that it is above all the US dividends. Indeed, in the USA the coupons have reached a new record, rising by 8,3% compared to last year and reaching 153,4 billions of dollars.
On the other hand, the distributions of mining companies, a decline caused above all by the drop in the prices of raw materials. However, they did come to compensate banks and oil companies who, according to Janus Henderson's estimates, will continue to be very generous towards their partners in the months to come.
Dividends 2023: forecasts for the entire year
Mining coupons will continue to decline, mainly affecting Australia, the UK and emerging markets. But the banks and oil companies will continue to compensate. “The picture in Europe is much more encouraging than it seemed three months ago, as solid 2022 earnings performance led to higher dividends. The boom in special dividends recorded in the first quarter is also contributing to an overall figure higher than expected for the current year”; explains Ben Lofthouse, Head of Global Equity Income at Janus Henderson, who adds: “The solid growth in dividends in the first quarter is even more impressive considering that 2022 was a challenging year for the global economy, characterized by high inflation , rising interest rates, conflicts and Covid-related lockdowns. This growth demonstrates that dividends are generally less volatile than earnings. We predict a slowdown in dividend growth due to these factors, but this year should continue in line with the long-term trend”.
Dividends 2023: In Italy in the first quarter increase of 5,2%
In Italy, the vast majority of dividends are paid in second quarter (The Dividend Day in Piazza Affari was Monday 22 May), so we will have to wait for the next reports to better understand the situation.
“In Italy dividends follow a less seasonal trend than in the rest of Europe. The Italian underlying dividends are rose 5,2%, with only two utilities and the oil company Eni paying dividends in Q1,” said Federico Pons, Country Head Italy at Janus Henderson Investors.
In the first three months of the year, however, cedole for 3,5 billion dollars, a sharp increase compared to 2,6 in the first quarter of 2022. The credit goes above all to Enel with its 2,2 billion, followed by Enel (900 million) and Snam (400 million).
