The international results of Lombard companies in 2021 are encouraging: 15 industrial districts are recovering, out of the 23 monitored which close 2021 above the levels of 2019, almost 32 billion euros in exports, with a growth of 21,4%. The comparison with 2019 shows a progress of 6,6%: Metals of Brescia at the top of the Lombard districts (+36,2%), sprint of theaerospace of Varese (+ 16,2%) and green patents of Milan e Monza at the top in Italy. These are the data from Intesa Sanpaolo's usual Lombardy District Monitor.
For the Northern Lombardy regional director of Intesa Sanpaolo, Gianluigi Venturini, the numbers speak for themselves: “The export trend of the provinces of Bergamo, Como, Lecco, Varese in 2021 confirms the attractiveness and quality of the local production chains, the excellence of Made in Italy. Engineering and the home system are above pre-pandemic levels, just as the rubber and plastic districts of both the Varese area (+15,4%) and the Orobic one (+11,8%) have continued their growth”. Just like the fashion system, even if it is still far from a full recovery. But today companies have to face new challenges, such as the increase in prices and the difficulty of procuring materials, underlined Venturini.
Lombardy districts: Varese engineering and aerospace at the top
Among the district supply chains that are already beyond the pre-pandemic levels, the engineering (+7,9% compared to 2019), driven by Metalli of Brescia. All the metalworking districts are in progress compared to 2020, and five out of nine have recovered the levels of 2019: among them, Mechanics instrumental of Bergamo (+6% on 2019), Metalmechanics of Lecco (+3,1%) and Metalworker from the lower Mantua area (+7,6%).
Sprint of the Varese aerospace (+16,2%), among the technological poles of Lombardy which is overall beyond the pre-Covid levels.
Rubber, plastic and the home system are also doing well
Positive signs also for the rubber and plastic districts, which continue to grow even compared to pre-pandemic levels: rubber and plastic items in Varese (+15,4% compared to 2019) and Gomma del Sebino Bergamasco (+11,8 .2019% suk XNUMX).
The is also fine home system (+8,6%), which continues to benefit from the growing attention to the domestic environment induced by the pandemic and where there is a full recovery of all districts, primarily the taps, valves and cookware of Lumezzane (+9,6% on 2019).
The agri-food sector is recovering, fashion is making a comeback
Even the agri-food chain (+10,5%), particularly active during 2020, continues its growth trend. Compared to pre-Covid levels, the Brescia wine and spirits district is still suffering from the closure, imposed in the first part of 2021, of the Ho.Re.Ca. channel. On the contrary, they have highlighted the Dairy of south-eastern Lombardy (+13,6% compared to 2019) and the Meat and cold cuts of Cremona and Mantua (+18,8%).
Encouraging signs are also coming from fashion system which showed a rebound compared to 2020 (+16,7%). Performance, however, still insufficient to allow the full recovery of what was lost in 2020 (-9%), penalized in particular in the first part of the year by the closure of activities deemed non-essential and by the limitations on social life, as well as by the persistence of the of smart working.
Lombardy industrial districts: where do we grow?
The markets in which the exports of the Lombard districts recorded the greatest growth in value compared to 2019 were, in order Germany (+418 million), the China (+341 million), the France (+328 million), the Turkey (+156 million), the Poland (+153 million), i Netherlands (+147 million), where in the generalized growth of almost all the supply chains, the Lombard metalworking districts stand out in particular. Promising signs are coming for the fashion system from China, where 2021 sales recover and exceed the levels recorded in 2019.
The conflict in Ukraine could change the positive trend
If 15 areas out of 23 monitored have recovered from the heavy losses inflicted by the pandemic, new shadows are gathering on exports, in light of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The potential direct damages are currently limited, taking into account that only 2,4% of the exports of the Lombard industrial districts are directed to these two countries, for a total of 771 million.
The macro-sector that exports the most to these two destinations is that of engineering, with approximately 471 million euros, which represent 2,5% of the total sales abroad of the districts of this sector. Worse for the home system, whose incidence rises to 3,5%, for a total of 221 million.
As regards imports from Russia and Ukraine, it is limited and equal to 97 million (ie 0,6% of the total imports of the Lombard districts) and is mainly activated by the Metals district of Brescia. Casalasco-Viadanese wood is particularly exposed to these countries which represent 6,9% of its total import.
However, when considering countries bordering Russia and Ukraine, the exposure becomes more important in markets such as Poland, Romania e Hungary which represent 6,5% of the exports of the districts of Lombardy. According to an analysis by Intesa Sanpaolo, the picture is currently very uncertain and characterized by sharp increases in commodity prices which are putting companies' income statements under pressure. Looking ahead, it will be essential to focus decisively on the diversification of supply and outlet markets. Only in this way will it be possible to reduce the risks that characterize the current geopolitical scenario.
