The financial October opens with a note of confidence. Asian stock markets rose, driven by Tokyo: an abundant +1% after the Tankan data, which shows the risk of a further weakening of the economy, a circumstance that will force the central bank to take new interventions. Hong Kong (+1,3%) and Australia (+0,8%) also performed well. On holiday instead the Chinese price lists. But today is still a historic day for Beijing: since this morning the yuan has been part of the basket of currencies underlying special drawing rights. And China is celebrating the growth of its financial power in its own way: Shanghai has announced the forthcoming purchase of 40% of the Pakistan Stock Exchange.
LA FAZ: "NO HELP FOR ITALY AFTER THE LESSONS FOR DB"
By lucky chance, Frankfurt is closed today for reunification celebrations. Also for this reason, the opening of the European lists should record a slight recovery. But the focus is still on Deutsche Bank and the impact of its crisis on the future of the banks which, according to the CEO of Crédit Suisse Tidjane Thiam, "suffer from a condition of great fragility".
After Friday's rebound in the stock (which in any case left 12,4% on the ground in September) the markets consider the down payment with Washington on the "discounted" fine (from 4 to 5,4 billion) as highly probable. But the emergency remains. First, because Barclays and Crédit Suisse are also targeted by the US, who will have to pay similar penalties for the irregularities that emerged from the subprime crisis. Second, because the banking crisis has split German public opinion in two.
Sigmar Gabriel, vice president of the council, lashed out against the top management of the institute, "speculators who now blame speculation for their own troubles", reiterating that the state will not intervene. The greats of German industry (Basf, Daimler, Siemens, Eon and Rwe) have instead launched an appeal: we cannot do without DB, "attacked" by US justice. But, states the editorial of the Frankfurter Allgemeine, "Germany, so severe towards Italy and the banks of other EU members, cannot afford a soft attitude towards its symbolic bank".
LONDON: NO COMPROMISE DIVORCE FROM 2019
The pound was under fire this morning, falling to 1,2933 against the dollar, to its lowest level since August. This is the reaction to the speech by Theresa May, who specified the requests in view of Brexit at the conservative congress: London will trigger article 50 of the treaty (i.e. the divorce clause) "no later than March" with the aim to complete the divorce from the EU by 2019. Great Britain, in addition to claiming its share of the community cellars (we are entitled, the British say, to 5.000 bottles of wine plus 250 of spirits of great regal), does not intend to come to terms on the immigration even at the cost of renouncing the advantages of the single market for goods and services.
ELECTION SURPRISES: COLOMBIA SAYS NO TO PEACE
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, a new surprise has occurred, just as sensational as Brexit: the citizens of Colombia, with a narrow majority (50,2%) they said no to the peace signed with the Farc rebels at the end of a conflict that lasted 52 years. At the moment it is difficult to evaluate the practical consequences of the rejection of the agreement for which, among other things, the diplomacy of the Vatican, the USA and Cuba had been spent. The fact remains that, if we want to make predictions in such a confused moment, in where the most rooted reference points have been skipped, we risk bad figures.
Another surprise: the anti-immigrant referendum promoted by Hungarian premier Viktor Urban did not obtain a quorum: finally some good news.
TRUMP HAS NOT PAID TAXES SINCE 1995. EMPLOYMENT DATA FRIDAY
Wall Street, after closing the third quarter on a strong note (+3,3%, the best result since mid-2015), is once again dealing with the duel for the White House. A New York Times investigation found that Donald Trump has not paid a dollar in taxes to the federal state since 1995.
Meanwhile, the deputies take the field. At Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia, Mike Spence, the Republican candidate chosen by Donald Trump, and Tim Kaine, who supports Hillary Clinton in the march to the White House, will face off in front of the cameras.
On the macro front, the most important US data of the week concerns the labor market, the key statistic in view of a possible rate increase (perhaps as early as November). The forecast is for an increase of 171 thousand employed against the 151 thousand in August. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4,9%. No less interesting will be the increase in salaries expected to rise by 2,6% compared to twelve months ago.
The autumn meeting of the International Monetary Fund kicks off in Washington on Friday, preceded during the week by the outlook on the state of the world economy now plunged, according to the opinion of the Broking Institute, "in a sort of swamp". Europe marks time, the US economy slows down. Growth is guaranteed only by the rescue of the BRICs: India is advancing without setbacks, Russia and Brazil are rebounding.
ITALY: MOODY'S RATING ARRIVES. UBI -15% IN SEPTEMBER
Unfortunately, the Italian economy is not as brilliant, as confirmed by the disappointing performance of the Italian Stock Exchange in September (-3,2%) under the pressure of the sales on the banks. The worst was UBI, which fell by 15% in the month in view of its entry into the good banks, heirs of the institutions placed under resolution last November.
But the game is still open: the European Supervisory Authority has granted an extension on the operation which presents delicate fiscal aspects and doubts about any residual NPLs. Mediobanca (-12,9%), Unicredit (-10,1%) and Intesa (-7,3%) also fell sharply.
In this context, the fact that Moody's will update the Italy rating on Friday, with the exchanges closed, acquires particular significance. Today's most important macro appointment concerns the collection of PMI data for the Eurozone, including Italy.
IL SOLE 24 ORE IN DISRUPTION RELY ON ROBIGLIO
It is staged today in Piazza Affari the drama of the Sole 24 Ore. Title: "From the last mile to the edge of the abyss", as stated in the hard press release of the Board following the recent tragic events of what was (and, we hope, will again be) a jewel of Italian publishing.
After the resignations of the chairman Giorgio Squinzi and of the directors Carlo Pesenti, Claudia Parzani, Livia Pomodoro and Mauro Chiassarini, CEO of Bayer Italia, and those of Carmela Colajacovo (who remains in office pro tempore), yesterday the board of directors appointed Carlo Robiglio as chairman and the president of Bnl Luigi Abete as his deputy. On the other hand, CEO Gabriele del Torchio was confirmed, however he was rushed to hospital on Friday evening. The break was motivated by Pesenti, Pomodoro and Parzani with the "irritual request" arrived from Confindustria on the willingness to leave office. The chairman Vincenzo Boccia, in reiterating the strategic value of the publishing house (1.263 employees) wanted to underline, responding to the requests of the board, that the shareholder "will closely monitor the good progress of the recovery project". Superfluous observation that tasted like a rejection.
At the origin of the psychodrama are the losses of the first six months: 49,8 million which compare with a restated negative result of 11,7 million euros in 2015. The business plan launched by former president Benito Benedini and ex ad Donatella Treu (the liability action against both is not excluded) was so blatantly rejected. A situation of absolute opacity in governance is emerging which embarrasses the top of Italian capitalism and has already raised the attention of Consob.
Piazza Affari bids farewell to ITALCEMENTI
Piazza Affari is about to bid farewell to Italcementi. The public purchase offer of HeidelbergCement closed with subscriptions equal to 86,087% (165.371.229 shares). The shares contributed correspond to 47,3% of the total capital which, added to the 45% already held, allow the German group to exceed 90% (92,3%).
Having exceeded the 90% threshold, HeidelbergCement will now proceed with the purchase obligation in view of the delisting of the share. The cost of the operation is 1,75 billion euros, which adds up to the approximately 1,6 billion transferred to Italmobiliare. The members who have joined their shares will be liquidated on 7 October.
