The financial week starts on positive ground, in the wake of the data arriving from the Chinese economy. The construction sector continues to pull, dragging up the prices of iron and other raw materials. The PMI index, the thermometer of manufacturing activity, confirms itself above 50, in an area of expansion. Anti-bubble measures have not slowed growth.
Both the Chinese and the Far East lists rose accordingly: Hong Kong's Hang Seng index +0,7% and the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists +0,5%. India's BSE Sensex stock market index is up 0,4%. Seoul loses 0,3%. North Korea launched another ICBM on Friday afternoon: after a 47-minute flight, it fell into the Sea of Japan 1.000 kilometers away. According to experts, North Korea is capable of striking Alaska. Tokyo was weaker, held back by the rise in the yen against the dollar, which canceled out the effect of the good data: +4,9% in industrial production.
More than Pyongyang's missiles, the uncertainty of US politics weighs on the markets. The new sanctions against Moscow, decided by Congress in response to suspicions about Putin's role in the electoral campaign, have provoked a reaction from Moscow, which has expelled 755 US diplomats. Meanwhile, the administration has shelved the border tax project (i.e. the tax on imports) but, despite numerous defeats, Donald Trump intends to insist on the abolition of Obama's healthcare reform. Against this backdrop, the dollar's weakness continues, starting the week at 1,1741 against the European currency.
Brent oil continues to rise: this morning it reached 52,8 dollars a barrel, up 0,7%. It gained 9,3% last week. Wti on the threshold of 50 dollars, as hasn't happened for two months. The Wall Street Journal reports that the United States is preparing sanctions against the oil industry of Venezuela, a country ever closer to civil war: over the weekend, on the occasion of the vote on the revision of the Constitution proposed by President Maduro, there were 13 dead in the square discounts in Caracas.
APPLE SUFFERS FROM SAMSUNG'S BOOM: 4 MILLION USERS EVERY HOUR
The tug of war between Italy and France on shipyards (and not only) is undoubtedly the hottest topic of Piazza Affari on the eve of a new wave of quarterly reports, with banks in the front row. But the attention of the markets is already turned to Apple, which tomorrow evening will announce the accounts for the quarter that ended in June with a forecast of 44,9 billion in revenues (1,57 dollars per share). But this time, more than the numbers, the words of Tim Cook will count. Steve Jobs' successor will have to resolve the doubt that has been conditioning technology stocks for months: the new, highly anticipated iPhone 8 which will have to celebrate the XNUMXth birthday of the object symbol of the global economy, will be ready in September or, for the first time, i Will component problems force a referral? It's not a trivial matter, because the delay would make it impossible to deliver to stores in time for the Christmas campaign.
It is no coincidence that the shares of Samsung are soaring which, with 8,35 billion euros of profits in the last quarter (4 million euros per hour…) should beat the US giant in the ranking of profits for the quarter and which has already announced for on August 23 the press conference for the launch of its new smartphone.
LE MAIRE THREAT: ANOTHER PARTNER FOR STX
The duel on smartphones only touches old Europe. Even if downward winds have hit the chip sector in recent days, including STM, which left 2,59% on the ground on Friday. But the game in vogue for the week is undoubtedly naval battle, or the attempt to save in extremis the acquisition of the Stx shipyards of Saint Nazaire by Fincantieri. The surge in the Italian stock in the finale on Friday (+4,6%) had led to a certain optimism in view of tomorrow's Roman mission of French minister Bruno Le Maire. But over the weekend the parties stiffened. Minister Carlo Calenda reiterated that Italy will never accept the 50-50 formula, Le Maire replied that France, while not wanting to, will have to look for "an alternative for construction sites", a rather remote hypothesis in reality.
VIVENDI OPENS THE GAMES ON THE TIM NETWORK
The Italy-France dossier has already been enriched by a new chapter of the interminable Telecom Italia dossier (+5,5% in the last week). In an interview with La Stampa, the president Arnaud de Puyfontaine surprisingly opened up to the hypothesis of the spin-off of the network, another endless catchphrase. The operation could pave the way for Enel and Cdp to enter Telecom Bis (the one of the network) thanks to the contribution of Open Fiber and Metroweb. The former incumbent, for his part, relieved of debts, could accelerate on the road to content, as already envisaged with the next joint venture with Canal Plus, and relaunch a possible axis with Mediaset. Everything is still up in the air, but it's not hard to predict that telecommunications will be one of the topics of the financial summer.
TOMORROW THE QUARTERLY OF INTESA. UNICREDIT FOLLOWS
In the front row, however, during the week there will be the banks. Tomorrow the Board of Directors meeting on the half-yearly accounts of Intesa San Paolo will be held. Wednesday will be the turn of Bper Banca and Unicredit. The week will close with the quarterly reports of Banco Bpm, Mediobanca and Ubi Banca. Among the quarterly reports of the week, the following also stand out: A2A, FinecoBank and Salvatore Ferragamo (today), Generali, Ferrari, up 4,7% during the week, and Poste Italiane (Wednesday). Finally, Tenaris (Thursday). In the last eighth, the best stock on Piazza Affari was Moncler (+6%).
MILAN AND MADRID LEAD THE EU EXCHANGES
The Milan Stock Exchange closed the week with a positive balance: +0,8%. In Europe, London ended the week with a drop of 0,7%, Frankfurt 0,6%, the lowest since April, Paris 0,1%. Madrid, on the other hand, gains 0,8%. It was a positive week for banks (Stoxx index +1,4%) and negative for automotive companies (Stoxx index -2,4%) and utilities (Stoxx -1,7%).
Among the European blue chips that celebrated were Adidas (+7,5%), Philips (+4,7%) and Société Générale (+4,2%). German automotive stocks suffered, hit by the judicial investigation on cartel charges: Daimler-1,3% and BMW-4,3%.
US CORPORATE REPORT: THE NUMBERS ARE GIVEN FOR 130 COMPANIES
Corporate America keeps churning out the bills. In addition to Apple, the Boards of 130 companies in the S&P 500 index are expected. Among these, Pfizer, Time Warner, Chesapeake, Kellogg, Motorola, Kraft Heinz and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. The average of profits should register a growth of 9,1%, that of revenues of 5,2%. So far forecasts have been exceeded: 73% of quarterly reports have gone better than expected.
On the macro front, the most awaited news will arrive on Friday from the US labor market: forecasts are for an increase of 180 thousand units (against 222 billion in June), enough to bring the unemployment rate down to 4,3%. Great attention will be paid to wage trends: pay slips should show a monthly increase of 0,3% (against the previous 0,2%). But on an annual basis the increase is reduced to 2,4% from the previous 2,5%: the expected take-off of salaries, to the advantage of the recovery of inflation, has not yet taken place.
UNDER THE GLASS: INFLATION IN EUROPE, RATES IN LONDON AND INDIA
On the central bank front, after last week's Fed meeting the ritual parade of US central bankers begins: tomorrow Loretta Meister of the Cleveland Fed and John Williams of San Francisco will speak. They have the task of explaining whether the Fed has returned to being softer, given the signs of a slowdown in the economy or whether the forecast of a third rate hike by 2017 remains valid.
In Euroland, the spotlight was turned on this morning on the trend of inflation and unemployment, awaiting the data from the PMI indices, useful for verifying whether and how much the rise of the dollar is impacting European manufacturing. Also on the agenda are the Wednesday meeting of the central bank of India (possible adjustment to raise interest rates) and of the Bank of England (Thursday): Mark Carney should imitate the Fed and the ECB, renouncing the increase in the cost of money. The attention of the markets is already focused on the Jackson Hole appointment for the mid-summer governors' meeting. For the first time in three years there will be an official speech by Mario Draghi, who last time used this appointment to launch Quantitative Easing. This time it could be an opportunity to anticipate the terms of the tapering.
