An important Adnkronos conference on demographics was held in Rome, entitled "Population, people, birth rate: us tomorrow". The event offered an insight into the current demographic situation by exhibiting numbers, trends and forecasts for the coming years. The conference, moderated by Fabio Insenga, deputy director of Adnkronos, saw the participation of various experts and commentators who shared their opinions and analyzes on the demographic issue.
A message from the government on the demographic crisis
A key aspect that emerged during the meeting was the importance of government policies as catalysts for demographic trends. Giorgia Meloni, in a letter sent to the conference, thanked for the initiative dedicated to the family and the birth rate, reiterating the importance of raising public awareness of these issues. He highlighted the need for a cultural change that values the choice of having children as a positive experience, which enriches life and does not deprive it of anything, as also reiterated by Pope Francis in recent weeks. The government must actively engage in these policies.
The minister of the family, Eugenia Maria Roccella, sent a video in which he spoke about the severity of the demographic winter that our country is facing. The lack of birth rate and the aging of the population are problems that require new approaches and job opportunities. The minister underlined the need to create a work environment more favorable to the birth rate and to women, who are currently still penalized by a working culture built around men. You said it is unacceptable that many women quit or are unable to access work due to their family responsibilities. It is therefore essential build a different culture in which couples who want a child know they are supported and rewarded rather than hindered. He highlighted the need for collaboration between companies, trade unions and non-profit organizations to promote cultural and communication change.
Istat forecast: the Italian population will decrease by 5 million in the next 20 years
For Linda Laura Sabbadini, Central Director of Istat, the demographic situation represents a structural problem that heavily affects the proper functioning of society. You stressed that the problem has been neglected for too many years and has created significant economic and social costs. According to Istat forecasts, the Italian population will decrease from 59 million to 57,9 million in 2030 and to 54,2 million in 2050. The elderly population will increase by 12 percentage points in 30 years, while the working-age population will will decrease by 9 million people. This creates difficulties in the country's development and innovation. According to Sabbadini, the problem of the low birth rate is due to a cultural change that has led to considering children as a choice that prevents the pursuit of other goals in life. He highlighted the example of France, which faced a similar situation in the 60s and achieved positive results through targeted policies. He stated that in Italy the problem was caused by inadequate management by governments and by the absence of policies to address the challenges of women's asymmetrical division of labor and maternity and paternity support services. Even solving the fertility problem, one would still need to wait at least 25 years to have an adult population capable of supporting the pensions of the elderly. He concluded by stating that long-term policies are needed that build confidence in the new generations, so that they feel encouraged to have children.
Compared to the rest of Europe, Italy seems to be getting worse
Alexander Rosinaa, Full Professor of Demography and Social Statistics at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, stressed the importance of tackling the demographic emergency to ensure competitive and solid growth in the country. Although large numbers of children were born in the past, the countries that have reached the final stage of demographic transition have not stabilized but have begun to decline. L'old age dependency ratio represents a significant challenge: how can we ensure adequate support for a population living longer? Rosina said that Italy did not have an adequate strategy to deal with demographic imbalances and left the new generations weakened. You have presented forecasts that show a worsening of the Italian GDP compared to other countries, such as Germany which has managed to contain the demographic crisis, and Sweden which is improving. You stressed that it is necessary to adopt population policies to avoid development problems in the country, the number of children per woman is a factor that needs to be increasedregardless of immigration.
It is not enough to have more children: the participation and productivity of workers must be increased
Eliana Viviano, Director of the Bank of Italy's Families and Labor Market Division, agreed with previous speakers, but added that a factor of production is missing from the demographic debate. It is therefore necessary to contain the decrease in the population and increase the propensity of people to work, as well as promote productivity growth. It would be useful attract migratory flows entering the country, given that many Italians move abroad. The contribution of the foreign resident population is also important, meaning that foreigners need to be properly integrated to become a key workforce. He highlighted the increase in female participation in the labor market, but underlined the need to combine this participation with higher productivity and higher wages. You concluded by stating that Italy must adopt long-term population policies that promote female participation and youth development.
What do the Italians think?
Finally, Fabrizio Masia, CEO of EMG Different, presented the results of a survey conducted on 1500 people to understand the perception and the awareness of Italians regarding the demographic crisis. The survey highlighted widespread concern about the country's demographic situation and a wide awareness of related problems. The Italians interviewed expressed the desire to have children, but indicated several obstacles, such as economic uncertainty e the lack of adequate support and policies.
