In Italy fewer and fewer children are born, women who have no children are increasing and those who become mothers do so more and more later. To contain the economic consequences of the decline in births, productivity must be increased: over 65s are needed at work, young people and immigrants. It is the chiaroscuro picture described by Bankitalia e Istat during the conference "The long view: the demographic dividend in the analysis of the Italian economy".
La demographic crisis it's not just a matter of population decline. Above all, it is a problem of imbalances between generations, with social and economic implications - the sustainability of the public debt also depends on it - which will demand more and more public health care and pensions just as the support force of the population of working age is weakening more and more every day ( conventionally defined by persons aged 15 to 64). At stake, after all, are "only" the foundations of a country's health: the ability to produce wealth and the possibility of making welfare work.
The problem - as noted by Bank of Italy and Istat - is that Italy has a marked "demographic fragility", accumulated over the years. And therefore are we facing an inexorable depopulation of our country, in which the aging of the population will bring the already precarious social and economic balance to definitive collapse? Certainly for Italy the challenge is difficult and in the next 20-30 years there will be one of the most sudden and significant changes in its demographic structure. But it can still be remedied to reverse the "bitter tendencies". Otherwise, continuing to ignore the problem, the decline will be irreversible and the social sustainability of the country will be at risk.
Demographic Decline: But How Did We Get There?
The Italian population after World War II experienced important changes. But how did this significant demographic decline come about? This situation is caused on the one hand by the new reproductive habits of women of childbearing age, who become mothers increasingly later (the average age of mothers with their first child is currently 33,3 years), and on the other by their number, practically halved compared to that generated by the period of baby boom, and defined as baby bust (when the average number of children per woman has reached the minimum value, lower than 1,2). In practice, starting from the mid-XNUMXs, a sharp drop in the birth rate began to be recorded, which also led to a simultaneous decrease in women of childbearing age compared to fifty years ago.
Furthermore, in those years there was also a trend reversal of the migration flows, and Italy from a country of emigration has become a country of immigration. And that has led to an increasingly aging population.
Not only that: these changes were grafted onto a country that was changing from a territorial point of view: regions were born, characterized by often very different demographic characteristics (negative demographic trends are now more pronounced in the southern regions), with diversified trends not only in family behavior but also towards health and migratory flows.
At the same time, compared to the past, we are overall richer and live longer (also thanks to medical progress) but in a much more gradual manner and certainly not in step with the demographic decline.
The North-South divide: the South is impoverished
During the conference, various studies were presented which reconstructed the trends of the Italian economy and of the two macro-areas of the country, the Centre-North and the South, from the XNUMXs to today. Some growth scenarios were also proposed on the basis of Istat's demographic projections and various hypotheses regarding the future evolution of the labor market and productivity. Historical analysis outlines a progressive slowdown in growth, most marked in Noon, driven by that of total factor productivity and, more recently, capital accumulation and the use of labour. Given the expected decline in the working-age population, without increases in labor market participation and productivity, the Italian economy is expected to contract from the second half of the current decade, with greater intensity in the South and Islands. Productivity growth rates similar to those of other European countries and a process of convergence between the two areas would instead be able to ensure sustained growth rates for the country, both in the labor market and in productivity.
Demographic crisis: the countermeasures
“To defend work, you have to create it. If you don't create it, it's difficult to defend it". The now outgoing governor of the Bank of Italy intervened with these words Ignazio Visco during the workshop emphasizing the need to “raise the participation of women e young to the job market. We need to invest in training to broaden the areas of job search, and strengthen the offer of services for children and the family in general". But even in the more optimistic hypothesis of a progressive rise in the activity rates of young people and women up to the average values of the European Union, "too low in various sectors of our territory and in particular in the South", the long-term growth economy will not be able to count on an endogenous increase in the labor force: the effects of the decline in population, especially in the middle ages, can be mitigated in the medium term, as well as by a lengthening of the working age - considering that "one can work well beyond the 65 years” – and by a recovery in the birth rate (however desirable), only also by an increase in migratory balance. "This can be done by preventing the outflow of our young people on the one hand, and by encouraging the arrival from abroad on the other", Visco underlined. But to manage migratory flows, well-designed training and integration policies are needed, essential for the integration of migrants and their families into the social and productive fabric.
Therefore, it is not too late to implement initiatives that go in this direction, certainly the outcome of this match is not obvious but the bet is still open.
