In the coming years, Italy's demographic problem will tend to worsen, creating worrying imbalances in the labor market. The Italian Public Accounts Observatory writes it in an analysis, explaining that there are two reasons.
Problem 1: Baby boomers are retiring
In primo luogo, the negative balance between entries and exits from the labor market is destined to expand because the generation of baby boomers (those born in the XNUMXs and early XNUMXs) will retire.
In detail, the demographic balance of people of working age will pass from -180 thousand units in 2020 to -300 thousand in 2026and then remain permanently over -400 thousand for the entire decade of the Thirties. According to projections, the balance will begin to rise again only after 2040, when the decline in births recorded in the 65s will begin to be reflected in the number of XNUMX-year-olds.
Problem 2: the net migration decreases
The second reason for concern cited by the CPI Observatory is the migration balance, which has already begun to decrease in recent years and could settle down in the future at lower levels than those observed in the first decade of the XNUMXs, at least judging by the forecasts of Istat.
Indeed, according to the median scenario formulated by Istat, this figure should remain stable for the next three decades around a positive average of 130 units a year. On this front, however, i margins of uncertainty are broad: "The forecast range presented by Istat ranges from a "high" scenario, with a balance of around 200.000 units (similar to the average observed in the first two decades of this century) to a "low" one, around 50.000 units ”, reads the analysis again.
Solution 1: promote and plan immigration
According to the Observatory, therefore, to address the demographic issue it will be necessary to intervene on two fronts: planning regular immigration, "bringing it to higher levels than those observed in the first twenty years of this century", and consistently widening the perimeter of the market of work.
On the first front, the Observatory underlines that the problem does not only concern the overall number of workers, but also their skills:
“On the one hand, migrants typically find employment in jobs where there is a shortage of supply, such as care for the elderly and the agricultural sector (Boeri, 2018). On the other hand, the demographic decline could also lead to a shortage of skilled and professional workforce in the coming years. In this sense, in order for the younger migrant population to contribute to the supply of qualified work in the future, the integration and education of foreigners should be promoted (Marois et al., 2020)”.
Solution 2: Increase women's participation in work
As for the participation rate in the labor market, it is necessary to intervene above all on that female, which today is almost 20% lower than the male one (54,7 against 73,5%). In this way, it is possible to aim to increase the rate of participation in the workforce of the entire population in the age group between 10 and 15 by almost 64%.
"Such an increase over the next twenty years, together with the "high" scenario on migratory flows, would reduce the loss of the workforce to almost zero over the next twenty years", concludes the analysis.
Source: Italian Public Accounts Observatory.
On the same topic, read also the interview with Professor Livi Bacci.
