The programmatic framework outlined by the Government indicates not only that we will have to walk along a narrow path, but that we are proceeding on a razor's edge. In fact, if we look at the two main objectives of our economic policy for the next three years, namely employment linked to economic growth, and the reduction of public debt, we perceive that both targets appear not only to be unsatisfactory, but their achievement appears to be exposed to a high degree of risk.
In reality, the starting picture, i.e. the economic situation we are experiencing in 2017, is quite good and improving. The recovery is affecting both industry and other tertiary sectors. It is driven not only by exports, but by domestic demand which, thanks to the gradual reduction of the tax burden on households and businesses and the recovery in employment of almost one million units, has got back on track.
And this must be emphasized to counter the "sovereignists" who instead focus on exiting the Euro and on devaluation, i.e. on exports by squeezing internal demand, demonstrating how fallacious their recipe is and how correct the choices of the last governments. Interest rates are low thanks to the accommodating monetary policy of the ECB, while the reforms and other provisions of the last governments, such as for example the Jobs act and the Industry 4.0 plan, have made a good contribution to GDP growth.
Confidence indicators for both businesses and households are at their highest levels for a decade. Private investment is rising, while public investment is at a standstill and could show a modest recovery only next year. And here it would be interesting to understand if it is a matter of lack of financial resources or if this is the consequence of the cumbersome bureaucratic machinery which in fact prevents the closing of a contract.
The public debt shows a slight decrease in relation to GDP already this year which should be more visible starting from next year and above all in 2019 and 2020. But this is based on quite sustained growth assumptions, certainly possible, but higher than
those foreseen by the main international observers; hypotheses that should be pursued through the continuation of an intense policy of reforms aimed at supporting competitiveness and efficiency.
The debt question is becoming central in order to consolidate the trust of the markets and of Brussels in our country. Without demonstrating on our part an iron will to pursue a credible, albeit gradual, path of reduction, our economy will continue to be exposed to major risks and to pay a premium for this as of now. Unfortunately, it does not seem that the political world, with the necessary exceptions, exactly evaluates all the implications that this entails, and indeed, many, basing themselves on the economic improvement, believe that the crisis has passed and that new commitments are not needed to raise our competitiveness, but that instead the time has come to widen the shopping shirts.
Even the attenuation, envisaged in the Def, of the trajectory of the return of the deficit and of the structural deficit, if in some ways it appears correct in order not to frustrate the possibility of GDP growth with excessive fiscal tightening, in others it could lead to doubts on the our effective will to achieve effective debt reduction. These public finance choices would be much more credible if they were accompanied by a convinced policy of renewal and reforms in order to increase competitiveness. The Def doesn't seem to be making a strong enough bet on this one.
Surely what is holding back the government, which even in the past has been able to deal with really thorny issues, is the internal political situation. The expiry of the legislature and therefore the start of the electoral campaign are creating a climate of general irresponsibility in the political forces. My friend Mr Bersani, with whom I had constant contact during the second Prodi government, seemed to me at the time much more sensitive to the problems of business productivity and the country's general competitiveness than he appears to be today.
At the time he seemed convinced that true sociality lay in the possibility of creating good jobs and in the reduction of positional rents which reduce workers' wages. Even today, beyond the more general political questions, I believe that a high degree of responsibility should be maintained by all political forces on some strategic issues for the future of the country, such as debt.
Basically, the Italian political situation seems to have forced the Government to adopt an unambitious programmatic project. Unemployment would still remain well above 10% next year as well. The debt would drop in a barely perceptible way and given that an important part of the maneuver, equal to 0,35 points of GDP is due to the fight against tax evasion, some doubts about its effective pursuit are more than legitimate. In this context, there is no possibility of reviewing the pension reform, even for the less favorable estimates on the demographic trend, while room for maneuver in healthcare should be sought within the system through stringent efficiency measures.
On the other hand, the government should make further cuts in unproductive spending to concentrate resources on some elements that are fundamental to competitiveness. I mention two: the labor market where it is necessary to strengthen the job start-up mechanism if it exists
true, as Sen Ichino states that there are about half a million jobs that are not filled for lack of people with the right qualifications. The second is precisely training, subject to an agreement with the Regions to reform the current system.
I appreciate Minister Padoan's poise and firmness. I note that the path of reform is having positive effects. I remind you that the debt issue is a brake on our growth potential. I hope that the opportunity offered to us in recent months by the favorable economic situation will not be wasted to continue to lay the foundations for stable and reliable growth, allowing us to focus on more ambitious goals both for employment and for debt control.
