GDP growth forecasts revised downwards, sterilization of fiscal safeguard clauses, flexibility also for 2017, Deficit-GDP ratio rising to 2,4%. These are the most important data that the Government should include in the Economic and Financial Document that the Council of Ministers should approve this afternoon.
Forecasts deriving both from the performances implemented in 2015 and from the prospects for the years to come.
Speaking of the Gross Domestic Product, a downward revision is expected for 2016 compared to last autumn's estimates (+1,6%). Based on forecasts, the Government should put pen to paper a growth of 1,2 -1,3%, even if according to some rumors the percentage could rise to 1,4%. The decrease is due to less marked growth than expected and the uncertain evolution of the international economy.
For the two-year period 2017-2018 however, everything should be confirmed. At this juncture, however, it must be emphasized that the new measures for growth arriving next May (from the total exemption of the levy on capital gains for those who invest in SMEs to the relief on reinvested profits up to the reform of bargaining and wages) could give a boost equal to 0,2% in the short term and 1% in the long term.
On the other hand, as regards nominal GDP (which also takes into account the consumer price index), it is estimated at 2016% for 2 and then rose to 3% in 2018 and 2019.
The deficit-GDP ratio, awaiting the responses from Brussels on the margins of flexibility requested by the Italian government, should settle at 2,4% but, according to calculations by the Sole 24 Ore, should the EU Commission's response be negative achieve an adjustment of 3 billion euros financed in part with the higher revenues deriving from the voluntary disclosure.
Finally, the Def should contain a request for flexibility which will also concern 2017 and which could reach one percentage point of GDP.
Furthermore, for 2017, the Economic and Financial Document should contain the sterilization of the safeguard clauses that will come into effect in the next few years, first of all the one concerning VAT, the value of which for next year is approximately 15 billion.
Finally, it is impossible not to address the public debt issue. Based on the estimates released last autumn, the debt-GDP ratio should drop to 131,4%, a percentage that deviates from the forecasts of the EU Commission which instead speak of 132,4% in 2016. The Government confirms the commitment to reduce the percentage by indicating a gradual path and in line with expectations.
