Today at 13 pm the Council of Ministers meets to discuss the new one Economics and finance document and to decide who will be the new undersecretary to the Prime Minister, a vacant box following the appointment of Graziano Delrio as Minister of Infrastructure.
The government's text on economic planning is essential forr avoid increases in VAT and excise duties provided for by various safeguard clauses, which are worth 16,8 billion euros next year alone and which would risk canceling the expected rise in GDP. According to the latest rumors, the document should provide at least 10 billion new cuts to public spending.
The Def will also contain better than previous economic forecasts for 2015: GDP up 0,7% instead of +0,6%, with a deficit that will still remain at 2,6% of the gross domestic product this year and slightly above 1,8% in 2016, guaranteeing more room for manoeuvre. Today's meeting of the Council of Ministers will give the green light to the new macroeconomic framework, while it will be necessary to wait until Friday to read the national reform plan which implements the spending cuts, attached to the document.
If the Executive fails to sterilize the rise in VAT and excise duties, according to Confcommercio, they would 54 billion more taxes in three years, of which 13 in 2016 alone, while according to consumers the increase would cost up to 842 euros per family per scheme. The depressive impact calculated by the Mef is one loss of GDP at the end of the period (2016-2018) equal to 0,7 percentage points.
There will be no new taxes, Matteo Renzi assured: VAT will not increase and, on the contrary, "if there are additional resources, the priority will be for families and to stabilize the incentives for companies to hire". The Premier would be toying with the idea of allocating fresh funds to the poorest groups, those incapable excluded from the 80 euro bonus because they don't earn enough to pay the Irpef.
The main contribution should come precisely from spending reviews which will focus, announced the new manager Yoram Gutgeld, on reducing the costs of the public car. Codacons suggests starting from the 500 useless entities which alone cost 10 billion a year, like a manoeuvre. The scissors of the new commissioners (with Gutgeld also the economist Roberto Perotti) should aim at scissoring territorial offices (all in a single building), police bodies (starting from the unification of the Forestry), single purchasing centers and local subsidiaries, all measures already provided for by the stability law and by the PA delegation that must be implemented.
But they will also be there stricter controls on social benefits, starting with disability checks, and an acceleration on standard costs, with the expenses of the Municipalities which will all have to be put online. Just i mayors, already grappling with the management of the 2,2 billion less resources foreseen for this year, are the first to launch the alarm on the impossibility of supporting other cuts. Meanwhile, Piero Fassino recalled, there will be a meeting of the metropolitan cities on Thursday to evaluate what to do, while a halt also comes on the local tax, which the government should include in the National Reform Programme, and which must not be penalizing for the Municipalities .
