Floods, fires. And, so as not to miss anything in a year that already promised turbulence in large quantities, the nightmare of the epidemic, the black swan par excellence which has already liquidated within a few days forecasts for the end of 2019 of the study centers of the global economy. It's not a matter of a few decimals of growth, he warns Mario Deaglio, the economist who has always been careful to intercept the signals of change, in his report on capitalism edited (edition number 24) for the Einaudi Center, but of the ability to adapt to a situation that evolves at a hitherto unknown speed and which offers novelties unthinkable until recently.
What can we say, for example, of Sweden, the traditional point of reference for an inclusive social model par excellence. Reality offers us a very different picture: sixty areas of the Scandinavian country are judged to be high risk by the police, who avoids venturing there. Meanwhile, the housing agency, one of the flagships of the Swedish model, announces that waiting times for the assignment of a house for rent in Stockholm, according to the fees set by the public body, have risen on average at ten years and five months. In short, it is a complicated world, not only for the coronavirus. But it also offers new models for dealing with uncertainty: the scooter economy.
“My grandchildren – explains Deaglio – use the scooter to move around Turin over short distances, without queues or traffic stress, including parking. And there is no pollution. It's a good example of integration of traditional technologies and digital economy. Thanks to an App they know where to find the vehicle and where to leave it at the end of use, protected by a password. It is a good example of that largely unforeseen phenomenon of lateral innovations that derive from fundamental innovations in the Schumpeterian sense. I have identified seven of them”.
Including the scooter?
“It is an example of innovation revisited in the light of modernity which has exploded in recent times together with the phenomenon of sharing goods once strictly personal property, now open to wide use. The sharing economy is growing at exponential speed. Just think of the changes induced by the Airbnb model on the habits of Italians, starting with the short-term rental which has become an important supplement to family income for many. But there are other no less important lateral innovations that have invested the payment system or the structure of commerce invested by the Amazon effect which promises a further revolution. But the news is many. And they concern a bit all fields. Medicine too."
Is the way of healing also changing?
“It will change more and more. The use of experiments conducted with electronic tools that allow in-depth knowledge of cellular mechanisms is leading to the creation of drugs designed for specific individuals. And, probably not by chance, there is a curious recovery of methods from the past: the number of pharmacies that create remedies ad personam is increasingly common”.
The digital revolution offers many possibilities but it is certainly at the peak of the season of uncertainties. It is not so?
"Absolutely yes. The uncertainty that derives from a new situation produces a sense of bewilderment and frustration which is one of the causes of global embitterment and contributes to the decline in net investments. Digitization, initially welcomed with enthusiasm, is now scary”.
At the origin is the distrust involving consumers and producers. How can it come out?
“I think the role of the system is decisive. It is at times like this that the role of continuous education becomes essential, capable of providing citizens with the tools to adapt their training to the needs of the economy”.
Sabbatical periods for everyone and a strong investment in training throughout the working life. What structure can bear such a cost?
“It will be necessary to resort to the web tax. A fair solution also in the light of the abnormal profits, which are also in the acceleration phase. Certain results would not have been possible without the efforts of the public system starting from the basic research that made the birth of the Internet possible. It is right that the winners return part of the earnings”.
But aren't the results, especially in the USA, the result of private investments?
“In reality, capitalism has invested very little in recent years. The American Stock Exchange has not played the role of raising capital for some time. If anything, through the buyback mechanism and Trump's tax cut phenomenon, the stock market has given little back to the economy. The statistics of the American economy are merciless: given 100 the real GDP of 2007, before the crisis, the United States rose to 120,7. But over the same period the real stock market capitalization rose 207,5. Much more than real household income, stuck at 103,6. The fruits of digital have not benefited the mass of producers”.
In this situation of general uncertainty, Italy seems destined not to make the news. Luckily, there is no longer talk of the risk of leaving the euro. Even the controversy with Brussels seems to have returned to more traditional tracks. Is that it?
“That's how it is, and we hope that a more constructive attitude will last. Italy has serious problems, but if you look beyond your front door, the same can be said of other countries. Italy continues to suffer from the traditional vulnerability of the institutional system. But it's a handicap they've always been used to living with. Within certain limits we have developed antibodies that allow us to react better than others despite the uphill race. I am always amazed when I scroll through the list of scientific publications. Despite inferior resources to others and quite a few imbalances mostly caused by bureaucracy, Italy remains in the top ten of scientific publications”.
But the economy is stalling…
“Judging by the results, our companies are coping with a change in growth paradigms better than others. We will be able, for example, to make the most of the green revolution that Ursula Von der Leyen intends to promote at European level".
In short, vaccinated against difficulties, we are better suited than others to face change.
"Luca DeMeo, called by Renault to face a complicated situation for a thousand reasons, the virtues that others envy us are a classic example”.
After years of frustrations and fears, Professor, I am hearing a note of optimism again. Is that it?
“Yes, net of the ability to hurt ourselves and black swans, we can say we are optimistic”.
