Other than signs of recovery. The international and Italian economic framework instead describes, according to what emerged from the 24th edition of the Report on the global economy and Italy, edited by the Einaudi Center with the supervision of Professor Mario Deaglio, “a future full of uncertainties. Today I feel like saying that there isn't even a certainty”, explains the Turin economist. The extensive work, not surprisingly entitled "The time of uncertainties", therefore reviews all the elements of crisis and concern: from the more obvious Brexit and gilets jaunes, passing through the inevitable US-China trade tensions, up to the climate paradigm and, lastly, the coronavirus pandemic in China which is starting to cause considerable concern on the financial front as well.
Among the emblems of an increasingly grey, not to say black, horizon, a particular focus has been dedicated to work. Will technology help or not? Will the jobs that are inexorably being lost be compensated for by a new phase of employment expansion? There are many doubts. The Report edited by Deaglio cites an authoritative and recent study, published by Eurofund and entitled “Technology scenario: employment implications of radical automation”. From the models developed by Cambridge Econometrics, based on data from PwC and McKinsey Global Institute, the forecast is merciless: Europe (at 28) will pay the price for the automation of work, while in other countries, including the 'India and the Rest of World category (which excludes the EU, China, the USA, Japan, Korea and precisely India) robots will even bring benefits.
Meanwhile, how many will these robots be? World production of these potential human market rivals has increased exponentially over the past 20 years. In 2001, 78 thousand were produced all over the planet, in 2019 instead 484 thousand, this year it should be 553 thousand and in 2021 even 630 thousand, counting only those manufactured from year to year. In total, there are already tens of millions of robots in the world, and their "population" is growing at a dizzying rate compared to the human one. The result is that between now and 2030 in Europe, compared to the baseline scenario, 17,2% of hirings in low-income jobs will be lost (where low-income also means jobs with reduced hours), but also 12,6, XNUMX% of high-income jobs. Only the United States has similar percentages. In absolute terms, the jobs that automation will eliminate over the next decade there will be over 70 million in Europe alone, more than in the US (50 million).
The solution? According to Professor Deaglio, strong interventions of periodic training of the population are needed: “Every certain number of years, whether they are 5 or 10, a phase at the expense of the community in which workers are given time to update their training. How to finance it? With the web tax”. The necessary resources, according to the aforementioned study, are not few. And here too one of the heaviest bills will come to Europe: the community of 28 countries including Italy in fact, almost 4 trillion euros will be needed, i.e. 4 trillion. An enormous figure, which in 2030 will be equivalent to 7,3% of the continental GDP.
