According to Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, the global situation, after the tensions on the markets in the first quarter which were not reflected in the real economy, looks like this: world growth around 3%, inflation which will still remain low , accommodating monetary policies "because we will carry the world with zero or negative interest rates for at least 3-4 years"; neutral fiscal policies: “only in the Eurozone is there any room for flexibility”; however, all this in the midst of strong geopolitical risks, not just terrorism (Brexit above all). In this context, there is no shortage of positive elements: low rates, the recovery of employment, the lower price of oil, which for Italy is worth 8-9 billion more resources for families. “The real contribution to growth is linked to consumption,” says De Felice.
For the Eurozone the scenario is favourable, but an acceleration of growth is unlikely: the condition is influenced by the fact that “in recent years we have given up on adopting an anti-cyclical fiscal policy. But we have never seen an economy resurrect with monetary policy alone without the contribution of an adequate fiscal policy”. Lastly, for Italy, the "missing link" of the recovery consists in business investment, especially in machinery and equipment, which contracted in 3 of the 4 quarters of 2015. Why isn't investment picking up again?
"Entrepreneurs no longer complain about tax pressure, but there is a widespread feeling that it is difficult to do business in this country", notes De Felice. For Italy, the forecast for 2016 (and 2017) is for growth of around 1,2% driven by domestic demand, with risks of a downward revision, inflation equal to zero, investments +2% ("it is a trend reversal but it's very little").
