War of the duties , Italian economic maneuver and tensions on the source of the Petroleum. These are the hot geopolitical themes of this delicate midsummer week.
"Come on guys, we're winning." Thus yet another tweet from the president Trump in response to China's decision to impose $60 billion in tariffs on US imports. "A weak move - exults the president - Our tariffs are working" and compared the successes of Wall Street to the decline of Chinese markets.
In response this morning the China Daily, the party's unofficial organ, publishes a personal attack on Trump, dubbed "a street thug dedicated to blackmail and extortion. Governing a country is something very different from doing business”.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Beijing it raised its defenses against speculation on the yuan (currently stable) and eased the credit crunch to support equity markets after a black week with losses ranging from -3% in Hong Kong to -6% in Shanghai-Shenzhen. However, the move had no effect: after an initial rise, the Csi index lost 0,8%, Hong Kong and Sydney rose (+0,5%).
In the meantime, the march continues this morning dollar: the euro trades at 1,1573.
A positive opening is expected for the European Stock Exchanges (Milan +0,4%). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the ECB Bulletin and German Industry Orders are due out today.
Hot day also for the Italian market. The spotlights will be concentrated on the holding of government bonds, on the performance of the spread and, consequently, oninvestor attitude on banks and insurance companies, the sectors most sensitive to the fortunes of BTPs. The uncertainties regarding public finances and the government's orientation, divided among other things over the fate of major works, have already produced dramatic effects.
From mid-May the yield of ten-year BTPsi grew by 50%, short-term ones – less protected by the progressive closure of the ECB umbrella – exploded. THE rates on five-year bonds have in fact grown by 160% and the two-year ones are the only ones among the main EU countries with a positive return. Credit Suisse has calculated that the recent increase in the spread with Germany has burned 3 billion on the balance sheets of Italian banks. Starting with Unicredit (a full billion) and Intesa (850 million, -7% on the Stock Exchange despite a good quarterly).
Year-to-date performance is almost unchanged. July ended up about 2,70%.
In the spotlight in the week the quarterly accounts of Unicredit e Bper, out tomorrow. Thursday will be the turn of Unipol and Unipol Sai. Outside the financial sector to follow the Pirelli accounts tomorrow.
The Bot Auction is scheduled for Friday.
The front of the is also warm Petroleum. Brent rose to 73,62 dollars (+41 cents), Wti to 68.82. Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia cut production by 200 barrels last week.
It contributes to agitating the picture the failed assassination attempt on Venezuelan President Maduro and above all, the launch of the first sanctions against Iran. The oil embargo will come into effect only in November but as of today Western companies will have to interrupt their contracts with Tehran: the repercussions for Airbus and Renault will be heavy.
On the market front, the brilliant quarterly performance of Berkshire Hathaway: profits tripled thanks to the bet (won) on Apple of which Warren Buffett's company is now the second largest shareholder.
Meanwhile, the quarterly harvest continues: Snap, CVS, Viacom, Marriott. But above all Walt Disney and 21st Century Fox, the protagonists of thebiggest deal of the year.
Finally, the central banks. After the most important meetings, the heads of the Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand will meet. To follow the meeting of the Argentine central bank engaged in a ferocious tightening (rates at 40%) to regain the trust of the Monetary Fund.
