The winds of independence blowing in Europe are becoming more and more threatening. These drives are certainly (originally) fueled by historical, cultural and political reasons, but more recently of almost exclusively economic origin. The fact that these areas, especially in a situation of generalized negative economic situation, enjoy special privileges and resources (natural and otherwise) compared to other regions of the same country and the same nation. In other words, they are rich areas that believe, rightly or wrongly, that they can support themselves and above all are convinced that it is a waste to have to share their "treasure" with the rest of the country.
Scotland is an emblematic case: it has a GDP similar to that of the United Kingdom, as well as being the main oil producer in the EU. Gone are the years in which people from the North of the Kingdom descended to the South to seek success. Now the flow of business, minus the City of London, is reversed.
For its part, Catalonia produces 20-25% of Spain's GDP. The main industries of the country reside in its region. As it happens, in the Basque Country (of course much less than in the past), where autonomism has always been a flag and where it has become dangerously radicalized with acts of terrorism and thousands of deaths throughout the peninsula.
It is difficult to fully understand what consequences a Scotland independent of the United Kingdom could have in Europe. If the Scottish referendum passes, it is certain that the Catalan autonomist movement would win a good victory and have a good chance of winning its own (already declared unconstitutional by the Government of Madrid) in November. A domino effect, which could infect the neighboring Basque country and then move to other European nations where the "desire" for autonomy of certain regions is significantly increasing.
The question that arises, however, is whether or not these regions have the strength to stand on their own feet, because if it is true that autonomy from a theoretical point of view is sustainable, from a concrete point of view it poses serious problems. One above all the money, but also everything related to social security, health, transport, school education, research…..
Catalonia, for example, is geographically located in a privileged area: on the border with France, overlooking the sea ... but at the same time hand in glove with Madrid for what is the current everyday life. Breaking away from the central government would therefore mean investing hundreds of millions of euros to reorganize the system: from the fiscal to the monetary and industrial one. Let's take the case of Caixa, one of the main credit giants in the country: what advantages could it have from independence? Nobody. Thus, an important financial source of support for the local economy would be missing. How much worse, therefore, one can think of at this moment.
The conclusion of all this is that it is above all the autonomist parties and a part of public opinion that are pushing for independence, convinced that with a little well-told populism we can become richer with more employment and more social services for everyone. In reality, the reverse of the medal is that in order to guarantee full freedom one would have to incur costs such (at least at the beginning) as to nullify any competitive advantage for a long time.
So is it worth it? We really think not.
