Positive start for Asian stock markets, in the wake of Friday's US labor market data. An "unusual calm" continues to reign over the markets, as defined by a report by the BIS of Basel, apparently impervious to the expectation of the first US rate hike since 2006. Tokyo rises by 1,5%, ahead of Hong Kong (+0,2%). Plus sign also for the Chinese Stock Exchanges.
The dollar trades at 1,0858, in line with the values reached last Thursday when the most violent daily variation was recorded since March 2009: from the low of 1,053 reached a few minutes before the meeting to peaks above 1,09.
Weak oil: Brent -0,3% to 42,8 dollars after the decision of OPEC to raise the ceiling for oil extraction to 31,5 million barrels per day (in line with current production).
European markets are also expected to rise at the opening: London +38 points to 6,287, Paris +38 bps to 4.572, Frankfurt -99 points to 10.852. But the day will be dominated by the result of the French vote, predictable but still shocking.
FRONT NATIONAL FIRST PARTY: POLICY ALERT 2017
A cold wind is blowing from Paris for the fate of the euro. Marie and Marion Le Pen's Front National was the first party with around 30% of the votes in the regional elections, ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP, 27,4% strong, while the Socialists did not go beyond 22% . The FN is leading in six of the 13 French regions, with serious chances of success in the second round especially in Provence, where Narion Le Pen has 34% of votes in the first round. In view of the policies of 2017, a serious threat to the very existence of the euro is looming.
Today the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, meets the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup is meeting in Brussels. Markets are also watching data on industrial production from Germany and consumer credit from the US.
TURNOVER IN VENEZUELA: THE OPPOSITION TRIUMPHS
Turnaround also in sight in Venezuela. The opposition won the majority of seats in Parliament: 99 seats against the 46 of President Maduro's ruling party: the long season inaugurated by Hugo Chavez 16 years ago is at sunset.
Finally, the message to the nation by President Obama who announced, in an anti-ISIS function, a tightening on entry into the country, more controls on arms and asked for the help of the big names in Silicon Valley to enhance the effects of intelligence.
MILAN, WEEK IN RED. THURSDAY THE BOT AUCTION
Two-speed ending for the markets in the past week. Thanks to the leap of more than 2 percent in Friday's session, Wall Street closed in positive territory: Dow Jones and Nasdaq +0,3%, S&P +0,1%.
On the other hand, a negative week for the European stock exchanges, which fell sharply on Thursday following the announcement of the interventions by the ECB. The stock markets, in broadly positive territory (in the order of 1%) up to the top of the Eurotower, recorded a sharp turnaround: in deep red, in Milan the FtseMib index lost in five sessions on 2,3, 2,47% (-3% in the meeting on Thursday the 16rd), thus reducing the performance since the beginning of the year to +XNUMX%.
The overall index of the Stoxx 600 European stock exchanges lost 3,2% during the week, the year-to-date balance is a gain of 8,3%. Worst of all was the oil sector with a drop of 6%, followed by Telecom -5,9%.
The drop in bond prices was also heavy; the yield on the ten-year BTP jumped from 1,4% to 1,63%, in line with the Bund of the same duration which rose from 0,468% to 0,664%. The mid-month Treasury auctions kick off on Thursday: 5,5 billion 12-month BOTs will be offered (6,01 billion maturing securities).
LUXURY RAISES ITS HEAD. YOOX REGINA ONLINE
A positive characterization of the week in Piazza Affari was the revival of luxury. Yoox Net-a-Porter was the best blue chip of the week with an overall increase of 12,6% which outperforms the result of the FtseMib index (-2,5%) thanks to the boom in online Christmas sales. Moncler (+6%) and Ferragamo (+4,2%) follow at a considerable distance.
Utilities also performed well, supported by the new tariffs decided by the Authority: A2A +2,2%, Snam +1,5%.
FCA: ZERO DEBTS IN 2018, MARCHIONNE PROMISES
Fiat Chrysler in the spotlight after Sergio Marchionne's meeting in London with investors organized by Goldman Sachs. The CEO of FCA announced that the group intends to arrive at the end of 2018 with an active financial position of 2 billion at the end of 2018. Already the year before, the group expects to obtain an investment grade rating and reduce charges to 1,3 billion financial from the current 2 billion.
Also thanks to the placement of the Ferrari stake, FCA is ahead of the financial roadmap of the 2014/18 plan. The achievement of these objectives will also be supported by the success of Jeep, whose sales targets have been raised to 2 million units.
But, according to a dynamic already experienced in the past, Marchionne has in the meantime revised downwards the investment estimates for the Alfa Romeo relaunch: the completion of the plan has been postponed for now by two years, from 2018 to 2020.
In the meantime, the waters on the Volkswagen front are still troubled. According to Bild, the top management of the group, away in Doha, were put under pressure by Qia, the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar (second shareholder of the giant with 17%) to review the rules and the power of the union in the agency.
The news was denied by Wolfsburg yesterday evening, but the feeling is that, despite the maxi-loan (20 billion euros) which will allow the group to avoid the consequences of the rating cut, relations with Gulf shareholders are at a minimum historians.
MANAGED, THE CHALLENGE FOR ARCA COMES ON
Amundi has also entered the contention for the purchase of Ark, the asset management company owned by Pop Vicenza, Bper, Veneto Banca, Banco Popolare and Popolare di Sondrio. The French company, fresh protagonist of the most important IPO on the Paris Stock Exchange since the outbreak of the financial crisis, is controlled by Crédit Agricole, which in Italy controls the center-north aggregate around Cari Parma.
For Arca's Italian shareholders, who have already received an offer from Ardian (the fund created by Axa Private Equity) it is now a matter of declining between the IPO or outright sale. In addition to the French proposals, Arca is appealing to the Americans of Atlas Merchant, those of the Centerbridge fund and Anima Holding.
