On Sunday morning, an unprecedented alarm spoiled the mood of the top management of Foxconn, the Taiwanese giant that assembles iPhones as well as supplying essential Tesla components: in China, where most of the group's plants operate, production would have been suspended for a few days, not less than a week. A big problem because, in view of Christmas, the company had plans to produce at full capacity, without stopping. Hence the suspicion of sabotage, to be linked to political frictions in the Yellow Sea, the hottest of these times. None of this: the decision of the authorities of Kunshan and Suzhou, headquarters of some of the factories affected by the measure, was linked to the electricity shortage, in turn caused by the soaring prices of natural gas and the simultaneous stop to coal-fired plants.
Let's move to another part of the global economy. Last Friday for the first time the prices of the'rapeseed oil have surpassed the barrier of 600 euros per ton on the Euronext price lists. A new absolute record, up sharply compared to the 390 euros of summer 2020. Also in this case the surge in prices has specific reasons (the drought in Canada, in particular) together with energy-related problems: the increase in rapeseed and palm oil prices go hand in hand with the biodiesel boom, which is on the rise together with fuel prices.
The connection between energy prices, natural gas in the lead, and agriculture finds closer connections every day: last week the United Kingdom took note of the default risk of the main fertilizers, with serious risks for the country's food supply. “Le Monde” raises the alarm on poultry and eggs, predicting a warm autumn even for roast chickens under the inflationary gridiron. Of course, all is not bad for the agricultural world: the drought in Canada has solved a large part of the problems of overproduction of cereals in North America, with beneficial effects for the entire soy chain and other productions in the Mid West, the lung of American land crossed by the famous Route 66. "Suddenly - we read in the Wall Street Journal - the market has reversed: after six years of lean prices have risen at breakneck speed, driven by Chinese purchases and the boom in demand for fertilizers. The result? Companies have taken advantage of this to renew their machinery, after years of stagnation. But the purchases that caused John Deere's turnover to soar (+27% in the middle of the year) have practically stopped due to the lack of supply: the shortage of chips is playing a bad joke on the giants of agricultural machinery. And we're back to talking about the fil rouge that links the increase in agricultural soft commodities to the flight of copper or aluminum. Not to mention the political fallout of the gas price boom natural: it is not necessary to do too much conspiracy to understand that the policy of Gazprom, which honors long-term contracts but does not sell spot quantities, aims to accelerate the opening of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, a political weapon against Germany. But it's this morning threat from Peru to nationalize the fields of Camisea, among the most important in South America if the royalties are not re-discussed.
In short, the big news is that the recovery of economies is no longer a question of reawakening demand, but of secure the offer, undermined by numerous bottlenecks ranging from endless queues in Chinese ports to energy shortages or raw material shortages. A new reality which, combined with the environmental emergency, is destined to change the planet's economy.
