It will be the success of the maxi-recapitalisation from 7,5 billion euros to having allayed the fears that in recent months had gathered in the halls of the bank in Piazza Cordusio: the fact is that from the”Outlook 2012” presented today by Erik F. Nielsen, global chief economist of Unicredit Research, a much less pessimistic forecast for the Italian GDP emerges than that drawn up by other institutes: with an economy that should start to grow again in the second half of the year, analysts from the bank headed by Federico Ghizzoni predict that the recession this year will not go beyond minus 0,3% against even -2,5% of the International Monetary Fund and -1,5% of Moody's. And for 2013 a growth of 0,4% is forecast. So no recession? For Unicredit the worst would therefore be over even if the Italian situation and that of theEurozone remains critical and the world continues to face significant uncertainties due to the severity of the 2008-09 crisis, the unprecedented response of policy makers and the persistence of national and global imbalances. But it is probable - according to Nielsen - that the trajectory of the GDP has touched the minimum point at the end of 2011
On what, then, is it concretely based the cautious optimism of Unicredit Research? First of all on the change of course of the ECB's monetary policy with Mario Draghi aiming, through an aggressive move on liquidity, to loosen the strong excursions of the spread between Germany and the other Euro countries, a much more coherent policy than that up until yesterday followed by Trichet's ECB which in fact had accepted a dangerous status quo for the maintenance of the single currency itself.
In this climate the spread should therefore decrease and given that banks enjoy greater access to ECB liquidity, both in euros and in dollars, the need for them to sell assets denominated in foreign currencies will decrease, which – according to economists at Unicredit Research – suggests further weakening of the euro. The creeping "devaluation" of the euro against the dollar which should bring the US currency from the current 1,30 to a year-end revalued rate oscillating between 1,15 and 1,20 dollars per euro should have beneficial effects first of all on exports reinforcing a trend that is already underway throughout the periphery of the Eurozone.
Nielsen predicts that a 10% dollar appreciation it will have an annual impact on the GDP of the Eurozone equal to 0,7-0,8% more. Therefore, again according to Unicredit Research analysts, the exchange rate effect should have a positive impact of at least 1,3% more growth over the course of a year.
