FROM BASEL 3 TO THE US SUBPRIME LISTS IN THE MARK OF BANKS
NO SHORT BOTS IN JANUARY. GENERALI LIQUIDS KELLNER
After the euphoria at the beginning of the year, the markets allow themselves a short break.
Meanwhile, awaiting the start of the US quarterly campaign, the markets take note of the major works in progress in the banking sector, still suffering after the wounds of the great crisis. Europe breathes a sigh of relief at the postponement of the capital requirements foreseen for Basel 3.
In the US it is time for the fine of the century: 18,5 billion dollars with which the big banks, Bank of America in the lead, hope to have ended the misadventures of subprime mortgages. Beyond the financial weight of the transaction, to give an idea of the size of the game, suffice it to say that the Bank of America division (soon to be dismantled) on mortgage litigation currently employs 40 employees who will be assigned to other activities
Tokyo -1,11% falls for the second consecutive day, while the yen recovers against the dollar. Stocks linked to exports suffer in particular, especially those of the car: Mazda -6,1%, Toyota -2,4%.
Down in Seoul too Samsung -1,3%, despite announcing operating earnings up 89% ($8,3 billion for the quarter).
At the end of the US session the S&P 500 index fell by 0.3%, the Dow Jones by 0.4%. NASDAQ -0,09%.
The leap of Amazon +3,9% stands out, promoted by Morgan Stanley.
A day of profit-taking also in the Old Continent after the European stock exchanges had risen to their highest levels in the last three years on Friday.
London Stock Exchange drops by 0,4%, Paris -0,8%, Frankfurt -0,6%
The FtseMib index fell in Milan by 0,3% to 16.895, after rising above 17 points in the first trading of the day.
The spread between Italian and German XNUMX-year yields has finished the session on the highs, at 283 basis points, against 276 at the close on Friday, when the differential had slipped downwards to 271. The yield on the ten-year period climbs back to 4,35% at the close, more than 10 basis points above the lows of recent days.
AMERICA
Alcoa's quarterly season kicks off tonight. The consensus of analysts foresees an average increase in the profits of the S& P companies equal to 2,9%: too little to cause significant changes.
It was the most expensive settlement in history: ten US institutions will pay a total of 18,5 billion dollars to put an end to a series of disputes relating to cases of foreclosures of properties. Among the banks involved Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo,
Bank of America, in particular, will pay Fannie Mae 11,6 billion dollarslari to settle a dispute related to subprime mortgages that began at the end of 2008. Not only that, bofa will sell to a group of three hedge funds 306 billion dollars of stocki who have like underlying other mortgage loans entered the portfolio through the acquisition of Countrywide. The lender explained that as a result of the two transactions, profit before taxes for the fourth quarter should contract by 2,7 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the hedges involved in the operation are celebrating: Nationstar Mortgage Holdings +13,6% and Walter Investment Management.
EUROPE / SOVEREIGN DEBT
From today until Friday, eurozone government bonds will arrive on the primary market for an amount that could exceed 30 billion euros, between short and long. It starts this morning with 1,1 billion Austrian bonds and up to 3,5 billion Dutch bonds, followed by the launch of the new German Bobl February 2018 on Wednesday for around 5 billion. On Thursday, however, Madrid will offer up to 5 billion credit cards for 2015, 2018 and 2026 maturities.
As for Italy, the Treasury has communicated the offer of the short-term auctions on Thursday: 8,5 billion euro of 12-month BOTs will be offered (the same amount maturing) while the three-month bond is not offered, on which securities for a countervalue of 3 billion mature.
The Treasury guidelines for 2013, published at the end of December, indicated the objective of lengthening the average life of Italian debt and a lower cash requirement, suggesting that the total supply of BOTs this year could be lower than that of 2012.
As regards Friday's medium-long placements, details will arrive today after the markets are closed, Intesa Sanpaolo expects an offer of around 3,5 billion euro of three-year BTPs, off-the-run for 2,5 billion , plus 1 billion CCTeu which, according to Treasury guidelines, will once again be offered on a monthly basis in 2013.
EUROPE - STOCK EXCHANGES
Banks rallied, while sales hit oil stocks and utilities in particular, where profit-taking was felt after strong gains in recent days.
The governors of the Banking Supervisory Committee have decided to postpone to 2015 the entry into force of the package of regulations called "Basel 3" which requires banks to have more stringent requirements on their liquidity. This is positive news for the entire European credit sector. The European Stoxx index for the sector reacted with a rise of 1%, to which it contributed Unicredit which gained 1,8%. The German Deutsche Banks the French rose by 2,6%. BnpParibas gained 1,8%, Barclays .
Brent prices moved little at 111,1 dollars a barrel (-0,1%).
In Paris Total is down 1,6%.
In the business square Eni -1,3% Tenaris fell 2,6%
ITALY
In Milan, the rise of MontePaschi which gained 6,8% (after +13% last Friday.
All the other banks closed in positive territory: Understanding+ 1,5% Banco Popular+ 3,7% Pop.Milano + 1,3%.
Among the insurance companies, strong growth in Catholic +5,5%. Almost unchanged Generali -0,07%, which in the evening defined with Petr Kellner the purchase of a stake in the Prague joint venture Ppf.Generali of which it now controls 76%.
Among the industrialists, Fiat rose by 0,1%, Finmeccanica -0,4% Pirelli + 0,7%.
Good test of StM, up 2,4% after Bank of America raised its target price to 7,1 euros.
Weak utilities: Enel -1,8% Snam -1,8% Tern -1,7%. Also declining Telecom Italy [TLIT.MI] -1,6%.
Among the mid caps there is a strong leap of immsi +18% on rumors of a possible sale of Alitalia to Air France. Immsi, Roberto Colaninno's holding company, owns 7,1% of Alitalia. The subsidiary was also positive Piaggio +3,7%. Air France has denied having ongoing negotiations with Alitalia shareholders.
falck Renewables rose by 6%. Prelios earned 3,4%.
