JAPAN TOWARDS RECESSION, ASIA DOWN. TREASURY AUCTION, THE WARM AUTUMN KICKS OFF TODAY
Recession looms over Japan, says an analysis by BNP Paribas after the government revised downwards estimates on consumption, exports and the construction of new homes. Some research centers, including JP Morgan Securities, expect a decline of between 0,2 and 0,3% of GDP in the quarter. The Bank of Japan has already leaked its intention to increase the stimulus to the economy at its next meeting, set for 18-19 September: first we need to wait for the indications coming from the Fed.
The market reaction was not long in coming: the Nikkei index marks a drop of 0,65%, Hong Kong -0,2% is also in negative territory. The New York Stock Exchange, awaiting next Friday's speech by Ben Bernanke in Jackson Hole, recorded very little emotion yesterday: the Dow Jones and S&P indices unchanged. The Nasdaq rose 0,3%, thanks to Apple. Meanwhile, the Fed president remains in the sights of the Republicans: in the event of Mitt Romney's victory, Bernanke will be replaced. The program includes a throwback for the central bank, with the return of the gold standard.
Quiet day for the European Stock Exchanges, also due to the closure of London stopped for the Bank Holiday. The indices recorded a moderate rise in a climate of expectation for the new measures for growth by the central banks. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 0,8%, Frankfurt +1,1%, Paris +0,8%. The London Stock Exchange was closed today for public holidays.
Treasury's warm autumn begins this morning auspiciously. The markets appear well set up in view of the offer at the auction of Ctz zero coupons expiring in May 2013 for an amount between 2 and 3 billion, plus Btpei indexed to inflation in the euro area for 500-750 million. Traders expect a positive outcome both for inflation links, which present a much more advantageous ratio than the equivalent German and French bonds (60bps for the September 2016 BTPei and 80bps for the September 2019 BTPei). Instead, the Ctz is attractive in its comparison with the Btp with a residual life of two years.
It is the first stage of a three-stage process for a total maximum supply of 20 billion: tomorrow it will be the turn of 6-month BOTs (9 billion), Thursday 10 BTPs (3-4 billion) and 5 BTPs (1,75. 2-2017 billion). Lastly, the offer of CCT maturing June 500 indexed to the Euribor (1 million - XNUMX billion) is envisaged.
The government bond market moved little yesterday: in the final the Btp scored an unchanged yield of 5,67% and a spread of 432 basis points, in line with Friday's closing. Field victory also on Wall Street for Apple +2% after the anti-Samsung ruling. The defeat of Korean society is felt negatively about Google, an ally of the Korean group to which it supplies the software for Android mobile phones, down by 1,2%. In contrast, other rivals of Samsung such as Research in Motion e Microsoft celebrate with increases of 3,1% and 0,8% respectively. Rim is the house that builds the BlackBerry phone and Microsoft is allied with Nokia, itself up 7,9%.
Crude oil prices are down, after the rise at the start of the week: Wti at 94,98 dollars a barrel (this morning at 95,29 dollars in Tokyo) and Brent at 112,3 dollars. It is the third consecutive session in decline. Modest changes for oil stocks: Eni 0,5% salt, Saipem + 0,6% Tenaris + 0,7%.
Meanwhile, in view of the ECB directive on 6 September, the debate in Germany is increasingly heated. Yesterday the "dove" Joerg Asmussen took to the field underlining that the technical and operational details of the new anti-spread plan being studied by the ECB "are being developed" and the Governing Council of the ECB "will discuss all these aspects in depth in the meeting scheduled in a few days. Asmussen, a member of the Executive Committee of the ECB, declared in Hamburg that the discussion within the ECB “will be oriented towards the principle that any reservations on the fact that it is a question of funding to Governments contrary to the Treaties will be cancelled. We will only act within our mandate”.
In Milan he held court Mediobanca +4,5%, thanks to speculative purchases in view of the September 5 board meeting in which CEO Alberto Nagel will illustrate his position on the matter of the letter-agreement with Ligresti, found by the magistrates. But the stock was also supported by the declarations in Rimini by Alessandro Benetton who hoped for a "discontinuity" in the strategies. The market interpreted the wish as support for the prospect of a spin off of the equity investments from the Piazzetta Cuccia banking business. Much more modest the rise of Generali up 0,8%.
Good upside of Telecom Italy which gained 2,4%, Mediaset marked an increase of 3,7%. Among the utilities, a brilliant day A2A +3,5%. Among industrial stocks, the rise of Finmeccanica +2,1%. Little moves Fiat e Pirelli: the former rose by 0,3%, the latter fell by 0,3%. positive Prysmian + 1,3%.
Among the stocks with smaller capitalization Prelios it ran up 20%. At the end of a long suspension due to excess rise, Rcs it recorded a 25% increase in the final auction, thanks to the expectations on the front of the anti-debt plan which CEO Pietro Scott Jovane is working on.
Two lists were presented for the renewal of the board of directors of Premafin, the first by Unipol, which holds 80,928% of the shares of the holding company it controls Fonsai, and the second by Canoe and Limbo, the two Luxembourg holding companies headed by Giulia and Paolo Ligresti and which still hold 3,947% of the capital following the capital increase reserved for the Bologna-based group. The Unipol list includes 13 names including the chairman and managing director of the Dalle coop company, Pierluigi Stefanini and Carlo Cimbri.
