The powerful external forces triggered the Italian recovery. The balance of economic indicators undoubtedly leans towards the rise in GDP. The question mark remains on the speed, which orders, expectations and leading indices have been accelerating since the spring. As written by the CSC three months ago, the new forecasts released by various institutes are revised upwards; the values remain suitably conservative because they take into account the fact that Italy suffered from slow growth before the crisis. The crisis itself has put extraordinary brakes on: high unemployment, credit crunch, large unused capacity, fragile real estate sector, profit margins at their lowest and savings to be replenished hinder the restart of domestic demand and productive activities.
For each of them, however, there are reassuring signs that the grip is loosening. In this scenario, with the Def the Government correctly mitigates the restrictive stance of the budgetary policy; in terms of public investments, European funds and the margins of flexibility for their co-financing should be fully used. It is imperative, both to have room for maneuver in public finances and to raise the country's potential, to keep the bar straight on reforms. Which are the fuel to fuel the confidence of partners and of the financial markets, which are once again on alert for the risky stalemate in the negotiations on Greece.
The global context remains favourable: in the USA, the climate, port strikes, the fallout from the arrest of the boom in the oil sector and the strong dollar have slowed down growth, which is expected to regain strength; China is in a piloted landing, but will continue to be a powerful engine of world development; the Eurozone, with the greatest weight on Italian exports, is progressively improving; conditions in Brazil and Russia are difficult but are not getting worse. Interest rates will remain low for a long time, while market rates will decline, thanks to the ECB.
