The CSC notes a drop in industrial production of 0,6% in October over September, when a change of -1% over the previous month was estimated.
Compared to the pre-crisis peak (April 2008) the level of activity remains 23,2% lower. Average production, calculated net of the various working days (2 more this month), decreased by 4,0% compared to October 2011 (-3,8% in September, 2 working days less).
Volume of orders is estimated to be down: -0,5% over September and -1,9% over twelve months. Last month they were down 0,4% from August and 1,0% on the year. In the third quarter, activity recorded a marginal increase over the second (+0,2%, from -1,6%), thanks to the significant progress in August (+1,7%). If these data were confirmed by official statistics, the change in the third quarter would interrupt a year-long decline in production.
The progress in the third quarter is surprising in the light of the negative performance of the qualitative indicators. The distribution of working days may have influenced the statistics. In the fourth quarter, the expected trend is negative. The variation acquired in October is -0,7% (-0,1% inherited from the third party) and the trends revealed by the ISTAT survey on manufacturing business confidence confirm the continuation of a significant weakness: the balance of assessments on production is slightly improved in October but hovering around summer 2009 levels (from -6 to -7); the one on total orders worsened (to -42, from -40) and the balance relating to domestic orders has been stuck for 4 months at the lowest value since the end of 2009 (-47).
