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Cryptocurrencies are a speculative bubble

THE POINT OF VIEW of the Chief Investment Office WM of UBS – The popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased, but strong doubts remain about whether they can actually become widely used currencies – Instead, there is optimism about the blockchain, or the technology that underpins it basis and which could instead have an impact on society.

From 2008 onwards, the popularity of cryptocurrencies increased, surpassing the 1.000 mark, with an aggregate value greater than the market capitalization of IBM. Anyway we have doubts that these can actually become widely used currencies. Businesses and individuals must pay tax receipts using government-issued currency, and the potentially limited supply of cryptocurrencies creates significant barriers to widespread adoption. We believe that the sharp increase in cryptocurrency valuations in recent months is a speculative bubble.

While we have doubts that cryptocurrencies will actually become a widespread method of exchange, on the other hand, the blockchain, or the technology that underlies it, will probably have a significant impact on societies, from the financial sector to the manufacturing sector, from healthcare to utilities. We estimate that, by 2027, the blockchain could increase the global annual economic value by about 300-400 billion dollars.

Blockchain investments are similar to those made in the mid-90s in the internet sector. In the next ten years, the blockchain could, in fact, lead to technologies that significantly revolutionize the sector. For the moment though, technological limitations still exist and therefore it is not clear which specific applications will be the most useful/profitable, in addition to the current caps on revenue and actual profitability associated with the industry. Despite these challenges, those investing in blockchain technology for long-term opportunities can begin to fall into two broad groups: technology enablers – across software, semiconductors, and platforms; and early & successful adopters – in finance, manufacturing, healthcare, utilities and the sharing economy.


Attachments: Report on Cryptocurrencies

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